We have a fair bit of rain forecast for Friday, and showers and windy on Saturday so this track should move to a genuine wet rating. With the rail back to TRUE, a rain affected track and windy day you would think getting cover will be important and they will be winning swooping around them from behind on the turn as they often do when the rail is in the position. Wait and see how the track plays but suspect it may be difficult to lead and win.
The Feehan Stakes is now called the Feehan Stakes again, just in case you ever didn’t actually stop calling it the Feehan Stakes anyway. This is probably the trap feature race of the spring, as in some years, most of the A grade horses hit the Memsie and the Makybe Diva (Craiglee!), and then you are left with a lacklustre field in this race, and also often there is little speed and lots of hard luck stories. Which means you end up with winners like MAGIC CONSUL, REKINDLED INTEREST and GUILLOTINE sometimes, though how AWESOME ROCK started at $31 a few years back remains a mystery. This year looks to be a perfect example of that, big field, not much form, no real stand out WFA horses, no speed and high likelihood of a long shot winner.
The speed here is going to be crucial in a field of 15 and really not sure where it is going to come from, so watch for riding tactic changes. Would be surprised if they go forward on 2-TRAP OF FOOLS 2nd up from a wide barrier, so that probably leaves the 6-FIFTY STARS and 13-BEAU BALMAIN pushing forward, from the 3-HOMESMAN, 5-BEST OF DAYS, maybe 9-SIKANDARBAD, and maybe they go forward on the 12-MR MARATHON MAN. But the speed looks to be really muddling and basically the winner will be the one who gets the clear run on the home turn with plenty of hard luck stories behind.
Think it is worth looking for value where, and we are going to push for the 13-BEAU BALMAIN who may have an edge on race fitness on some of these. Has drawn a perfect barrier to either go forward and lead or sit on the speed, was racing consistently over winter and probably deserved to win one of those races. He is lightly raced, on the improve, and didn’t mind the Caulfield run when he looked the winner in the straight but just seemed to run out of steam and think there will be further improvement to come out of that. Probably wants it further, and is racing at WFA, but think he has struck a winnable race here today and the $35 on offer looks generous. Have to respect the 9-SIKANDARABAD who we have always had some time for, the 1st up run was excellent when beaten by three good horses and jockey even said he thought he was going to give MYSTIC JOURNEY a run for her money when they went for home. Probably just needs to be ridden midfield or better from a good barrier. The 5-BEST OF DAYS is one of the few proven at this level, and probably has a bit more versatility than most of these, and being drawn out for a clear swoop around them is probably a plus. Other chances are the 11-YULONG PRINCE was very unlucky at its only Australian start, badly held up for runs at the back of the field and unclear how much there was to give so have to keep safe, and we can never actually catch the 6-FIFTY STARS but suspect he prefers it wet and this is his chance to grab a feature WFA race.
We have been in pretty good form recent form, making profits two out of three weeks so far this spring and finding a single tip $18 winner mid-week at Sandown this week. Unfortunately, two of the Lays of The Days have also won as well so we are going for a treble this week.
BEST WIN: Race 7: 3-BON’S AWAY $7 WIN
Really consistent performer who has ran some great races in feature sprints, mainly the Oakleigh Plate, and is yet to miss the place in 5 starts over the 1000M. Probably should have won here last start when burst through late to just miss. That was a small field in a leader dominated raced, this race will suit a lot better with a bit of pressure up front, a wide barrier draw to get a clear crack at them, and a track likely to favour those running on, so looks to have everything in place today. Fit and ready to win and confident win bet at around $4.50.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 13-SILENT ROAR $4 EW
Very open second race with a big field but most of these are pretty dubious in terms of form. This one is very consistent when fit, rolls forward and normally keeps form once he finds it. Is 2nd up and up 200M, but is unbeaten in three races 2nd up. Doesn’t appear to be that much pressure up front here, his 1st up effort was even, with further improvement and back to best form would be hard to beat here. Each way at around $13.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 13-FABRIC $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 13-FABRIC#7,9,12,14 x $4 = 100%
Lightly raced mare with a bit of ability who was a black booker here last start running home late really well on a day that favoured those up on the speed. Does stay at the 1200M, and she probably prefers 1400M, but as long as they are running on and winning OK she should be right in this. At the bottom of the weights and should be swooping around them late. Back each way at around $7 and anchor in a quinella with the 9-VICTORY KINGDOM who will get a good on speed sit here and was good first up on speed in a swoopers race, the 12-TOFANE who has a lot of talent, but stung punters 1st up when a beaten $1.85 favourite, the 14-QUEEN LA DIVA which goes OK, has good form lines and will sit on speed on the rails, and just watch out for the 7-EXTREME BLISS at odds, loves it wet, track work is good, drawn to swoop late and was SCR from Sandown mid week for this much harder race today.
QUINELLA: Race 9: 10-ROYAL ACE, 9-STRIKE FORCE, 3-NEW UNIVERSE boxed x $3
To be honest we are really not sure where to go in the last race and it will come down to how the track is racing. This is a very even race, but assuming they will be winning running on late by the end of the day, which is a racing pattern what will suit 10-ROYAL ACE and 3-NEW UNIVERSE, and throw in the reliable on pacer the 9-STRIKE FORCE who has solid track and distance form for a value quinella.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 6-ST EDWARD’S CROWN $2.50 EW
This one is 1st up from a spell, but showed promise in first campaign with some strong finishes down the straight. There are some good horses in this race, especially the short priced favourite the 1-EXHILARATES who was super impressive winning last start. There is probably not that much pressure up front today, but suspect this one will be finishing on really strongly and may get into the finish at around $20.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 8-OAK DOOR $2.50 EW
Extremely hard horse to catch and we are still in shock that he managed to win 1st up, after a long lay off, on a wet track and beating a legendary wet tracker. No way in the world he should have won that race, but think that also means he might start to show some of the potential he has always had. Solid 2nd up run here, should be fitter for the 2 runs back, a few can go forward in this and he should sit just behind them and just get the impression he has improved. Each way at around $15 and should be around the finish somewhere.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 13-BEAU BALMAIN $2.50 EW
Playing with one at odds in the feature Feehan Stakes, mainly because he will roll forward and lead or sit on speed in a race with no real pace that may get messy for those back in the field. Has been racing really well over winter and probably deserved to win a race. He isn’t suited at WFA, but then again most of these aren’t WFA horses anyway. Think he will run a race today at around $35 in a race where you probably just want to play with some value runners anyway.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 2-HAUT BRION HER at around $2.60
Sydney-sider who is flying and has won her last 4 starts. Comes down to Melbourne now and the reverse way of going, goes up in weight to 58kgs, and has to give weight to quite a few down in the weights with a bit of potential. There isn’t much pressure up front, which means she may get a good on speed run, but also assuming that won’t be the racing pattern (and we are probably totally screwed if it is). We are going for three Lays in a row winning but happy to take on at around $2.60.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a enough to buy the candy factory
$5 ALL UP:
PLACE: Race 3: 7-INVERLOCH
PLACE: Race 4: 13-FABRIC
PLACE: Race 6: 8-OAK DOOR
PLACE: Race 7: 2-ASHLOR
Sticking with those with MV form and looking for a value multi. The 7-INVERLOCH had an absolutely horrible run here last start when caught out working very wide on the speed, had led and won previous two starts and should get a soft lead today so looks a great kick off leg. The 13-FABRIC was really good here last start and is our best each way bet of the day. The 8-OAK DOOR was an amazing win first up and then OK here 2nd up, drawn to sit handy today and plug on into the finish, and come home on the under rated MV specialist the 2-ASHLOR who looks value and has race fitness on most of his rivals. Looking at a tasty return of around $800 should everything fall into place.
Race 1: 4-CONQUEROR, 2-THE HOLY ONE, 5-OLYMPIC OATH
Race 2: 13-SILENT ROAR, 12-HEIR TO THE THRONE, 16-BUT IT’S TRUE (emerg), 1-JUNIPAL
Race 3: 6-KENTUCKY BREEZE, 7-INVERLOCH, 8-KING OF LEOGRANCE
Race 4: 13-FABRIC, 9-VICTORY KINGDOM, 12-TOFANE
Race 5: 1-EXHILARATES, 7-SASSY SALITAGE, 6-ST EDWARD’S CROWN
Race 6: 10-THE INEVITABLE, 8-OAK DOOR, 11-TAVISAN
Race 7: 3-BON’S AWAY, 10-PROPHET’S THUMB, 2-ASHLOR
Race 8: 13-BEAU BALMAIN, 9-SIKANDARABAD, 5-BEST OF DAYS
Race 9: 10-ROYAL ACE, 9-STRIKE FORCE, 3-NEW UNIVERSE
