Fine weather heading into the weekend and this track should come up pretty firm with a warm sunny day forecast for Saturday. Quite often on Derby Day with the rail TRUE and a firm track on a sunny day the racing pattern will favour those on-speed so just keep an eye out and see if they can run on and win down the middle of the track early in the day. Doing the form for those on-speed and drawn well regardless. Derby Day is barely recognisable anymore, without a 2500M Melbourne Cup qualifier race and without the Mackinnon the program just doesn’t see to gel as well as it used to. As a novelty event though they are now running the Vanity for 3YO fillies twice this year!
We are coming off a few lean weeks on the punt and the tips, but there is always plenty to bet on for Derby Day and we will double up the Betting Portfolio this week and include an assorted mix of bets for Cup Week punters.
For Spring Campaign 2024 tips will be posted Saturday morning around 10am (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 6: 3-TRAFFIC WARDEN $10 WIN
Plenty of sprinting talent in the Coolmore and this does seem a race between the top four chances in the market. Always like to be on strong finishing horses in this race and often in general down the Flemington 1200M strong finishing horses are the way to go, and there should be enough pressure up front here to set it up for this one. SCR at the barriers in The Everest when was well in the market and has ran great races at the two starts this time in at the top level. Like that he is proven over further than 1200M and most of these are not. Race should set up for him to run over the top of them and happy to back this one straight out at around $5.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 2-STYLISH SECRET $7 EW
Small field for the first race and the short priced favourite and leader here the 1-FEROCE should be very hard to beat, but liking the each way odds about this one. Was racing extremely well earlier in the spring and has form around EVAPORATE who was also competitive in the Caulfield Guineas. Just held on here against the Derby types last start and instead of aiming for that race has been freshened and targeted for this race instead. Probably needs a more forward ride here in a small field and muddling tempo, but has a good enough sprint to win this at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 7-POLITELY DUN $7 EW, QUINELLA 7#1,2,9,13,17 x $5 = 100%
Pretty open VRC Derby but this one looks the safest bet each way. Looks a genuine staying Flemington horse, simply got too far back at MV last start in a sit sprint and worked home well out wide. He has had a more solid staying preparation than most of these and suspect he will be strongest at the end of the race. Drawn a good barrier, just prefer to see him settle in the first half of the field rather than drop back, but he should be working through the pack in the straight regardless. Back each way at around $12 and sure to be a nice quinella in an open race with the favourite the 1-EL CASTELLO, the genuine chance in the 17-WAR RIBBON (emerg) if he gets into the field, his arch rival the 2-RED ACES with similar form lines and profile, the genuine staying Sydney sider the 9-TENBURY WELLS and the best roughie in this race the 13-SCARY forgiving the last run.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 7-ALSEPHINA $7.50 EW
TRIFECTA: Race 8: 1,7/1,4,7,11,12 / 1,4,5,7,11,12,13 x $10 = 25%
This one has been racing really well this spring, was trotting waiting for the gap to open at MV and burst through nicely to win (and form from that race has held up with two subsequent winners in the placings) and then pretty much beat the rest of the field bar the winner in the Toorak Handicap. Suited to a fast ran 1600M with the 11-GRINZINGER BELLE rolling along in the lead, loves a firm track and will probably settle closer in the run than the main danger the 1-ATISHU and these two look the main winning chances. Back each way at around $8 and looks a good trifecta race standing out the two main chances for first, and value runners in the consistent 4-REVOLUTIONARY MISS and under-rated 12-LADY IN PINK to place. This is our main bet of the day.
QUINELLA: Race 4: 3-TAMERLANE#5,7,10 x $9 = 300%
The talented 5-JIMMYSSTAR looks extremely hard to beat here but have a feeling the 3-TAMERLANE is going to run a race today so keen to anchor him in some quinellas. Looks to be little speed here, and he can jump and lead and control this race and did the same in this race last year only fading in the last 50M. Impressive win strike rate and given two trials so should be ready to do something here. Anchor in a quinella with the 5-JIMMYSSTAR who is top pick and hard to beat but no value, the 7-NICOLINI VITO who loves Flemington and dry ground, and the pesky outsider the 10-NOT AN OPTION who has more than once occasion popped up at long odds over this course and distance.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 9-WHO DARES $3 EW
This one is a bit of jinx horse for us and has knocked us out a few times, mainly because he used to keep running second so we would take him on. Seems to be racing extremely well this time in, his best races are leading or on-speed down the middle of the Flemington straight and looks like he will get everything to suit today. Placed 10 from 12 this distance. Looks a really good rough chance at around $18 rolling along on-speed over a favourable track and distance.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 3-TALISAY $3 EW, QUINELLA 1,3,6,10 boxed x $6 = 100%
The Wakeful for 3YO fillies over 2000M is probably a lot more open than the betting market suggests. This one has been racing really well over in Adelaide and was strong late in the Hill Smith behind one that is right in the market for the Derby. Looks like she will run out a strong 2000M, maybe just want her to settle a bit handier today, but outside the top few she is just as good as the rest of these and going to go around at $41 which is massive odds. Back each way and take a value quinella with top pick the 1-JENNI’S MEADOW who was good last start, wary of the 10-INEVITABLE TRUTH who keeps working home well in her races and the classy but way too short-priced favourite the 5-POWERS OF OPAL.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 2-TREASURETHE MOMENT at around $3.60
Second pick in the market and she has been racing well this spring and can lob on-speed here and get every chance. Just thought she struggled to run down the leader last start (and the inside was off that day too), and not convinced about stepping up to the 2000M unless she can dictate the speed and control the race. Outside of the short priced favourite (who may just be too good regardless), prefer to back some at around $10 or more and she doesn’t look value here.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to buy a bogan pass into the members
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 3: 9-WHO DARES
PLACE Race 4: 3-TAMERLANE
PLACE Race 5: 10-INEVITABLE TRUTH
PLACE Race 8: 4-REVOLUTIONARY MISS
Looking at around $600 for a $5 outlay. The Race 3: 9-WHO DARES looks a good rough chance on-speed down the straight, the Race 4: 3-TAMERLANE is likely to lead and show a good kick, the Race 5: 10-INEVITABLE TRUTH has been working home well in her races and the Race 8: 4-REVOLUTIONARY MISS is just about always in the finish.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 1,3,5,14 / 1,2,4,7,9,13 / 1,7 / 5,7,16,17,19 x $20 = 10%
Feature race day and the quaddie will normally pay OK. Take the main chances in the first leg, load up the second leg with as many as you can afford in an open Derby, anchor it down to just the 7-ALSEPHINA, 1-ATISHU in the mares feature and open it right up in the last leg with any silly outsiders you want to throw in for a 18 horse field down the straight.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 7: VICTORIA DERBY
We have a pretty big and even field for the VRC Derby and normally you can do the form and watch the videos and have a confident bet in this race as these have all been racing against each other so they can be lined up. However, the key form races the Caulfield Classic and the MV Vase have both been run as sit-sprint races and resulting in a three way bunched finish with not much between them, so it’s very hard to separate the form of the runners coming through these races. Normally you would look for the best run out of those races, but really not sure what that is with such close finishes? So this might be a pretty open race with plenty of chances of an upset. Worth noting that no horse has won the Derby with less than 5 starts going into the race since 2000 (when our lists start), which is an extra challenge for some of these. It may be worth looking for form lines away from the traditional Melbourne races.
For a Derby the speed looks really good and the speed map is a little tricky here as plenty of these can go forward and there are plenty of runners drawn out who can press forward. The favourite the 1-EL CASTELLO is going to have to try and find an on-speed position from the outside barrier, the 12-HOT TOO GO, 14-OXFORD BLUE and 15-WEST INDIES will all likely press forward and one or more of these will most likely take up the lead (which also means the favourite can follow them across without too much effort). The 3-KEENELAND will settle handy as well and the 17-WAR RIBBON and the 2-RED ACES will be next behind them, having got into good positions without having to do much work from inside barriers.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-EL CASTELLO is the deserved favourite here, but how much of that is because no-one can sort out the rest of super even bunch? Whilst most of these are struggling to win maidens he is stringing together four wins in a row, and in much stronger races. He has a class edge over these and better even still he gives himself every chance, going forward and box-seating and presenting into the race at the right time. Does face a challenge from an outside barrier here, there are plenty of others going across and going forward and there is a decent speed for a Derby, so a lot is going to depend how easily he gets across and if he gets caught wide in the run. Looks the one to beat and a strong chance.
2-RED ACES has always looked a contender for this race, after winning over Flemington 1800M as a 2YO in the Byerley which was set up for exactly this sort of horse to get into the Derby. Really liked the run here two starts back, when chased hard to the line along the rail against the (3) when up in distance and think he probably has that one covered with fitness improvement to come. Scratched from the Caulfield Classic (which hurts even more when you had him one-out in the Early Quad), and then showed a bit of grit to win the MV Vase, the race turned into a sprint before the turn, he bumped and struggled to get past the leader and had another one looming to run past him, but he somehow managed to kick back and win. Looks a true staying type suited to Flemington, 2500M and a genuinely run race. Would have preferred he won a bit easier last week, but maybe he just didn’t get the race run to suit. Looks ready to peak here, good barrier and he can make use of the barrier and sit handy here. Definitely good enough to win this and one of the leading chances.
3-KEENELAND does everything right in his races, going forward and sitting handy and has a decent turn of foot, more than being a solid staying type. He controlled the race here in his Flemington win and then got the perfect run in the Caulfield Classic and was poised on the turn off a slow speed to sprint clear, and thought he would dash away from them there and win easily, but he looked beaten the whole way down the straight. Somehow he still finished third not beaten far at all. He can go forward here and sit right on the speed, guess he is a chance if they go slowly and he can sprint clear, but think there are doubts about him over a solid staying 2500M trip and suspect the other two in the finish from last start have more improvement to come and will outstay him here. Also very hard to win a Derby in your first preparation. Form looks good but probably prefer to risk this one.
4-GOLDRUSH GURU looks to have a touch of class and plenty to like about a separate form line from the bunched finishes in Melbourne. Had to make a long and four-wide run last start and won with a bit in reserve and the Hill-Smith is normally a pretty good form race. Jockey Kah goes on board. Drawn wide and one of many likely to press forward early here. Guess the question is if he has had a really strong staying preparation (only one run past 1600M this preparation), he is going to have to work early and others may be stronger here at the end of 2500M. To be honest we thought we were going to tip him before we did the form and now we are not so sure this is the right race for him. Chance.
5-SAINT EMILION is in his first preparation with only 4 starts and coming off a Geelong Classic win which is rarely the right form for this race. That win was pretty good though, he went straight past them and he looks a really solid staying type. In a smart staying stable too. Watch the market on this one and see if the moves come. Well drawn and looks like he will stay, so another with some chance, but this is such an even field there are others we prefer.
6-KINGOFWALLSTREET is also in his first preparation and is trying to win this race at only start number 4, something no horse has been able to do in the last 25 years or more. Looks a very solid staying type, improved rapidly Flemington 1800M here two starts back and does seem like he wants a big track and distance. Race wasn’t run to suit at all at Caulfield, but he managed to sprint with them and stick his neck out to win. More improvement to come off that run. His form lines scream that he is looking for Flemington 2500M, he is likely to drop back here and might have a few slow horses in front of him. Think he is probably the best out of the Caulfield Classic, so the $17 on offer is actually pretty good odds, but that number of starts stat is putting us off a fair bit as a winning chance. Rough chance only.
7-POLITELY DUN has had a tough preparation with 4 runs over further than 1600M which should see him tough and ready for a 2500M staying contest. Hit the line well here, bounding to the line two starts back when neck and neck with the (6), and then really had no chance at MV when he dropped well back on a track that was hard to make ground and in a race where they went slowly and it turned into a sprint home. He was probably the best run of that race, running on late out wide into 4th. Looks a solid staying type suited to a Flemington 2500M, he is drawn well so wonder if they ride him more forward here? Main issue he has is dropping back behind a big field with a long tail blocking his way (not his tail, the tails of the other slow horses in front of him), but he is going well enough to win this and looks a major chance. Strong chance.
8-KING OF THUNDER has been going along well in weaker races up in Sydney and then was very well backed in the MV Vase when he loomed like the winner on the home turn, but the (2) somehow managed to hold him off. Looks to have a bit of class and a bit of a turn of foot against a field of mainly stayers. Inside barrier is a bit of a concern here, there are quite a few that can race handy that will come across and there is a good chance he will be shuffled back and stuck behind stopping horses here. Has to be right in this on last start, to be honest as second favourite think he is too short in the market and no value. Chance, but no value.
9-TENBURY WELLS has had the most starts of any runners in this field, and was set some pretty hefty challenges in his 2YO season. Looks a really strong staying type ploughing through the heavy ground two starts back, and then got across to get perfect run into the race in the Gloaming but the (1) sailed by with ease. Another who is likely to go forward here to sit on-speed and looks like he can plug away OK into the finish here and he is going to be suited in a strong staying contest. Warming to his chances and think he is suited in this race. Good rough chance.
10-PERU has been grinding away this preparation, not being beaten that far, but not really getting into the finish either. Literally went to sleep at the back of the field in the Caulfield Classic and cut the corner on the rail in the MV Vase in an even effort. Pretty rare to have a horse run in both of those races and again into the Derby, which means he is racing three weeks in a row. Can settle handy here and probably plugs away OK, but looks safely held by others going around here. No
11-CHINA SEA has been racing in stronger races than many of these up in Sydney, and then got the perfect sit and sprinted well in the Caulfield Classic. Question is going to be how strong the form from that race is, but drawn well and does look the type who can take a sit here and run into the race at the right time. One of the many chances here and would watch for a positive market move on this one. Chance.
12-HOT TOO GO has been racing pretty well this spring in weaker races, actually quite like the Seymour maiden run when the first two drew away from the rest of the field, and then stuck on OK in the Geelong Classic but he was well held by the (5) who went straight past. Still a maiden. Likely leader here crossing from an outside barrier and the speed here looks OK. Was up sharply in distance last start and may have more improvement to come, not impossible he can lob on-speed and stick on well here. Probably the best rough place chance here.
13-SCARY has been coming along nicely this spring, beat home the (7) in a maiden, good maiden win at Sale the start after, stuck on well out wide at Flemington and then happy to forgive the Caulfield run in a very slowly run race when he didn’t get warm. Worth noting he was well in the betting market there and was looming into the race nicely on the turn, but it looked like he just couldn’t go with them when they sprinted for home. Well drawn and looks like the Flemington and 2500M will suit, and he might be poised on the home turn to run into the race at the right time here. Actually think he is a rough chance of an upset here. Rough.
14-OXFORD BLUE is coming into this in his first preparation and off only three career runs which is a massive ask. Stuck on well at Sandown at first start against one that has gone on to be a pretty good horse, but thought he was pretty disappointing in the Geelong Classic when he was well backed to a short priced favourite and was pushed along before the turn there after a perfect run. Guess he still wasn’t beaten that far but never looked likely and that race rarely stacks up in the Derby. Drawn outside and likes to race on-speed is an issue. Likely to go forward here and may plug away into the placings but rough place chance at best, guess when you look at his form he has been competitive every start. Rough place.
15-WEST INDIES is facing a considerable task to win a Derby at only start number 4 in his first preparation. Won a four horse maiden on a heavy track and then led at a slow speed and quickly beaten in the Caulfield Classic by many going around here. Gone to a new stable. Drawn barrier 17, but likes to lead and with jockey Newitt on board almost certain to go forward. Form not good enough here. No
16-AUTUMNHEAT is still a maiden and has been well held by many of these this Spring. Beaten a long, long way in a Seymour maiden two starts back by the (12), and then got left flat footed when they sprinted for home in the MV Vase, but he actually worked home pretty well out wide. Drawn out but likely goes forward here as likes to run on-speed. Form just isn’t good enough for this which is harder again. No
17-WAR RIBBON (emerg) represents a new form line away from the bunched Melbourne finishes. Been a consistent performer most starts, finished on well when well held behind the (9) two starts back and then led all the way to win maiden. Well drawn, can race handy and question is how we line up the form into this. Market seems to have some respect for this one and might be a solid staying type. Does represent a different form line from the bunched Melbourne finishes. Good barrier, can go forward and get a cosy run in this when a lot of his rivals will either be working from outside barriers, or dropping well back in the field, and has shown he can stay. Be interesting to see here he lands in the betting market if he makes the field. Think he is a genuine chance here. Chance.
18-CECCHETTI (emerg) faces a task trying to win a Derby off only 3 career starts as a maiden in is first preparation. Checked last start and stuck on well, but stepping up sharply in distance here and faces a pretty big task. No
Summary:
Normally we are keen to have a bet in the Derby because punters can line up the form so clearly with only a few key form races, but we think this year is close to the most open race we have ever seen and most of these have some chance of winning. On that basis think it is worth looking for value away from the favourite the 1-EL CASTELLO who is definitely the one to beat. The 7-POLITELY DUN looks the best of the Melbourne form to us, looks a solid staying Flemington type, wasn’t suited the way the MV vase was run and hopefully won’t drop too far back today in a big field. Will be suited by the strong speed here and just needs the runs to come to run into the finish. The favourite the 1-EL CASTELLO for second who will almost certainly be in the finish, but suspect in such an even field might find one better. Putting the 17-WAR RIBBON (emerg) in for third, looks a solid staying type, will sit behind the speed here and stay the trip, main issue is actually getting into the field! Respect for the 2-RED ACES who will get a softer run than many of these and watch out for the sneaky roughie in the 13-SCARY who might present into the race at the right time here and would be right in this without the last start flop. We can back a few of these straight out to win and box up a value quinella in an extremely open race. Tipping four so we have three selections if the emergency doesn’t get into the field.
Race 1: 2-STYLISH SECRET, 1-FEROCE, 3-ACTA NON VERBA
Race 2: 7-MATISSE, 1-TOO DARN LIZZIE, 4-I AM VELVET
Race 3: 11-REY MAGNERIO, 9-WHO DARES, 3-SPACEWALK
Race 4: 5-JIMMYSSTAR, 3-TAMERLANE, 7-NICOLINI VITO
Race 5: 1-JENNI’S MEADOW, 3-TALISAY, 10-INEVITABLE TRUTH
Race 6: 3-TRAFFIC WARDEN, 14-BELLATRIX STAR, 5-SWITZERLAND
Race 7: 7-POLITELY DUN, 1-EL CASTELLO, 17-WAR RIBBON (emerg), 2-RED ACES
Race 8: 7-ALSEPHINA, 1-ATISHU, 4-REVOLUTIONARY MISS
Race 9: 19-PONDALOWIE, 7-INFANCY, 17-ISTHMUS
