There are a few showers around heading into the weekend but the track should stay just on the edge of a GOOD(4) / SOFT(5). Last meeting here, even though the rail was TRUE the racing pattern did favour those racing on the speed and generally the more the rail goes out at MV the more likely there is to be a leaders track so they might struggle to make ground today.
Overall, this isn’t a great betting program, but there are some great races of interest, particularly Races 5 and 7. Everyone is trying to bail out of Race 2 with six scratchings already, obviously they got a better offer somewhere.
The feature race the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, can often be a bit messy and normally the better quality horses are going through the Memsie into the Makybe Diva. So we get left with really the lesser grade WFA horses, most very early in their preparations and a few times over the years we have had a lack of speed in this race and a messy race with plenty of hard luck stories. The winner of this race can often be the horse with the best luck who gets the run at the right time. Think there is a good chance that will happen again, many of these are stayers just warming up, and there is very little speed or pressure up front. We are going for 6-RHYTHM TO SPARE as a clear top pick here, fit, in form, isn’t a WFA horse, but doesn’t need to be to win this and most importantly he can track and sit right on the speed here and make his run at the right time. Have to watch the market on the two NZ visitors to see how forward they are, so 10-LIZZIE L’AMOUR the main danger, and watch out for old timer 3-JACQUINOT BAY as the roughie on speed, who had no luck in this race last year, and might run better than expected as outsider of the field.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 4-MISSROCK $7 WIN
Stable has created the new category of Sprinter-Stayers with this one and stable mate SO SI BON and both are going extremely well. Seems to be rapidly improving and perfect win here last start when got cover behind the leader, who kicked really well and she came out and wore her down. That was an impressive win and really her last 4 starts now include that and three Top 4 Group 1 and 2 sprint finishes. She is absolutely flying and looks to be improving even more. There should be enough speed on here again, trick might be getting out from an inside barrier in a small field , but can’t see why she cannot do it again. She is actually 2nd outsider in this field at the moment, which is crazy when you look at her form, and think the $9 is amazing value so back her straight out seeing there are only two place dividends anyway.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 8-RADICAL $3 EW
Doesn’t win out of turn, but fitter for the 4 runs in when ran on OK each time the first three, and then suited by the fast speed here last start, when was running all over the top of them and bang, smack, straight into a dead end. Probably should have won. Not too fussed about the outside barrier as a drop back horse who is best ridden wide, cold, and late and there looks to be good speed here again with a couple of possible leaders. Each way at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 8-OAK DOOR $3 EW
QUINELLA:: Race 7: 8-OAK DOOR#2,3,7,9 x $4 = 100%
Super consistent on pacer who is just a winner when right and strung together a winning streak back at the start of the year. Probably better over these shorter trips and was tough winning first up when had to force the run to get into the clear. There is a super short priced favourite in this the 2-BRAVE SMASH, who is definitely the one to beat, but just can’t go backing horses at those sort of odds. This one will lob on speed here, the track may be favouring leaders again, in a race where there doesn’t look to be much pressure up front and should kick on into the finish. Back each way at around $8 and anchor in a quinella which blows out if the short priced favourite flops.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 6-RHYTHM TO SPARE $5 EW
RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 8,9: 6 / 1,2,9 x $3 = 100%
Racing in career best form and previously found it hard to maintain form. Win two starts back at Flemington was sensational when pulled out and flew home over the top of them. Bit of give in the ground suits, has won 11 times in career, and 9 times over the 1600M. Totally not a WFA horse, but probably doesn’t need to be to win this race. Most of all he should get the perfect sit here, on speed, in a race with not much pressure up front and will get the clear runs whilst all the others are getting held up. Very confident each way bet at around $10 and a great horse to use in doubles into other horses you like today.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 7-BROADBAND $2.50 EW
One of the more open races of the day and really there isn’t much wrong with this one’s form. Adelaide stable often has spring success bringing runners over. Drawn wide, and likes to race forward so might get trapped a little wide, but at least will get a clear run. Have a little something each way at around $15.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 3-JACQUINOT BAY $2 EW
Having a second bet in the main race on this old timer. Really he isn’t racing in his best form, but has been thereabouts and normally slogs out a finish. Main reason for a bet is that he was hopelessly unlucky in this race last year when get blocked for a run on the home turn. Likely leader here and there isn’t much pressure up front so suspect he is going to run a lot better than the rank outsider $34 chance he is in the markets.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 3-SAMOVARE at around $2.60
Smart WA mare who has a bit of a spruik on her, but last two starts she has been beaten at $2.80 and $2.25 so happy to take her on again. There are a few who are going OK in this field, and she will probably drift back a bit in the run and her two main rivals are on pacers and will be getting a head start. She obviously has ability and can win, but think she is under the odds as a beaten favourite her last two and prefer to back the two on pacers in this field.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a house on The Block.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 5: 4-MISSROCK
PLACE: Race 6: 3-LIMESTONE
PLACE: Race 7: 8-OAK DOOR
PLACE: Race 9: 2-BOOM TIME
Last week was a non-event due to scratchings, and these bets do seem to go better at Moonee Valley so lets have another, less ambitious attempt. We have already backed Race 5: 4-MISSROCK to win, but let’s kick off with her to place at around $4, and remember it is only two place dividends in this race though. The Race 6: 3-LIMESTONE should lob on speed and is normally pretty reliable to be in the finish, and same story with the Race 7: 8-OAK DOOR and Race 9: 2-BOOM TIME. Main trick should be really to kick off the first leg and then let the on pacers do their thing, we are looking at round $240 for a $5 outlay.
Race 1: 7-SEA THE SPARKLE, 9-SPANISH REEF, 11-BETTYRAE RUBY
Race 2: 6-ABERRO, 2-ESHTIRAAK, 8-SUNQUEST
Race 3: 8-RADICAL, 3-ANAHEIM, 7-RECALCULATE
Race 4: 3-FOUNDATION, 7-HARLOW GOLD, 6-GREY LION
Race 5: 4-MISSROCK, 1-RUSSIAN REVOLUTION, 3-SUPIDO
Race 6: 3-LIMESTONE, 7-BROADBAND, 13-SHE’S SO HIGH
Race 7: 8-OAK DOOR, 2-BRAVE SMASH, 7-WELL SPRUNG
Race 8: 6-RHYTHM TO SPARE, 10-LIZZIE L’AMOUR, 3-JACQUINOT BAY
Race 9: 9-ETYMOLOGY, 2-BOOM TIME, 1-BIG DUKE
