Cox Plate Qualifying Day at Moonee Valley and the weather is looking clear with the rail OUT 3M. Just be wary that when the rail goes out at MV the racing pattern often favours those racing on the speed and we suspect good barriers and racing handy are going to be very important today. Definitely don’t want to be caught back on the rails behind runners in big fields – unless the sneaky gaps open up.
In the feature race, barriers and tactics are going to be crucial with the obvious leader the 3-THE CLEANER, but also 8-MAHUTA, 12-MISS ROSE DE LAGO and 14-JAMEKA looking to cross and go forward from outside barriers. Suspect you will want to be on something sitting handy just off them, or sitting behind the leader and cutting the corner the leader comes off the rails in the home straight. That puts roughie 4-JACQUINOT BAY right in the finish with a rails run on speed behind the leader.
As always with a MV meeting there are a lot of short priced favourites, but there are some big, even fields here and we are mainly interested in a few each way double figure odds chances. So going to dabble at some at odds in the Betting Portfolio.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 5-SHEIDEL $7 WIN
Up against the speedy short priced favourite the 8-HEATHERLY who is obviously going to be hard to beat, but this is a smart sprinting mare who has won 12 from 20 and rapidly improved last time in. Suspect she is going to go on with it this preparation and nicely drawn to sit just off the leader in space and make a run at the right time. Happy to back straight out at around $6
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 14-JAMEKA $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 14-JAMEKA#2,4,7,10,12 x $5 = 100%
Pretty much one of the most reliable each way bets going around and we have lost count of how many times we have tipped her. She is over due to win anther race though. Excellent effort 1st up when just missed the start slightly and settled back further than usual, but hit the line really well and was unlucky not to get 3rd. Drawn wide here and would want them to go forward, but there are two others drawn out as well who will go forward too so hoping she will settle down handy and in clear running just behind them. Looks a solid each way bet at around $8 and sure to be plenty of value in the quinella in a big even field so anchor her with the main dangers and a few roughies like the 4-JACQUINOT BAY who should get the run of the race here.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 8-OREGON’S DAY $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 1,3,7,8,13 x $5 = 50%
We have been waiting for this one to return and suspect she is going to be one to follow in the feature 3YO filly races this spring. Done nothing wrong in career so far and was really tough to fight back and win at Caulfield against one that goes pretty well. Drawn a perfect middle barrier here in a race with an awful lot of speed and should be able to sit in clear running and run into the race at the right time. Watch out for her this spring – and let’s try and get on early at a very tasty $13 today, and suspect we will get better odds come race time. Let’s also take a value box quinella with a few on pace roughies in a very open betting market.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 11-WHEATSHEAF FLYER $3 EW
Was really good last start at Caulfield flying home late, and that was only his 2nd run back from a long, long lay off. Drew an outside barrier that day, but drawn well today and can race handy from the better barrier. Much fitter for the 2 runs in and career stats are pretty good despite having a long lay off. Suspect he is going to get largely forgotten in the betting market as everyone runs to jump on the unlucky 10-VOSTOK from last start, but would much rather be on this one and he should be right in the finish today at odds of around $13, but again expect better odds come race time.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 5-SWACADELIC $2 EW
Rather tricky last race with not much speed, but this one is a smart stayer who rapidly improved in his last preparation early in the year and might go onto better things this spring. Loves MV and hit the line really well 1st up and out to a more suitable 2000M today. Does tend to like to get back and swoop so may be a tricky ride and may need to get lucky inside runs, but think he is a stayer on the way up. Have something each way at around $17
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 16-PICCADILLIES at around $5
Current favourite in 3YO filly race is a 1st starter that has been spruiked for weeks since a good jump out win in early August. Been scratched previously, and you can only keep the spruik up for so long. Meeting a more experienced field here and with plenty of pressure up front just don’t think she represents any value at all and much rather prefer to bet on those with exposed form. Happy to leave out.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 1: 8-CHAMPAGNE COCKTAIL
PLACE: Race 2: 9-SADAQA
PLACE: Race 7: 8-ROUGH JUSTICE
PLACE: Race 8: 4-JACQUINOT BAY
We need to do something in the first few races, so let’s try a Poor Man’s Quaddie with an all up place bet on 4 MV on pacers. In small fields in the first two races the 8-CHAMPAGNE COCKTAIL and 9-SADAQA can hopefully fall into the place at value odds. The value runner in Race 7 is the 8-ROUGH JUSTICE who is fitter for the 2 runs in and should be able to lead and rail today, unlike last start when he was held up for runs back in the field. And come home on a super value roughie in the feature race the 4-JACQUINOT BAY who might get the run of the race and present at the right time in the straight. Looking at a lazy $1200 for a $5 outlay which is highly ambitious, but let’s see how we go.
Race 1: 3-KANIANA, 8-CHAMPAGNE COCKTAIL, 5-CHOICE
Race 2: 5-RAW IMPULSE, 9-SADAQA, 7-MASTER ZEPHYR
Race 3: 11-ONTOFF OFTHE WORLD, 12-ROCKETEER, 1-HEY DOC
Race 4: 11-WHEATSHEAF FLYER, 2-MR INDIVIDUAL, 10-VOSTOK
Race 5: 5-SHEIDEL, 8-HEATHERLY, 6-WILD RAIN
Race 6: 8-OREGON’S DAY, 13-ATHENA LASS, 3-SWORD OF LIGHT
Race 7: 3-VOODOO LAD, 8-ROUGH JUSTICE, 12-FAST CASH
Race 8: 14-JAMEKA, 4-JACQUINOT BAY, 12-MISS ROSE DE LAGO
Race 9: 5-SWACADELIC, 13-O’LONERA, 9-TOOLEYBUC KID
