Only a few showers heading into the weekend, so this track should stay on the firmer side but at least we have predictable conditions to work on. Normally MV with the rail TRUE every horse gets their chance, however, over the last few years firm tracks have favoured those on-speed on both the Friday night and Saturday meetings, even with the track wearing after so much racing. So watch the racing pattern and be ready to take advantage of it on the punt. Last night the track got to a GOOD(3) and good chance that will happen again today, and whilst it wasn’t a dynamite leaders track most of the winners came along the inside few lanes and definite advantage to be on-speed which is likely to continue today.
With all the races being shuffled around we have ended up with 4 x 2040M races today, with the JRA Cup moved from the Grand Final Eve meeting and the Tesio Stakes for the mares out to 2000M, plus the normal MV Vase for the 3YOs, so this makes for quite an unusual program. We have also lost the 2YO race that is normally on this program. Tricky punting program, we don’t have the usual list of short priced favourites on Cox Plate Day, but small fields means there is little in double figures to consider. Simple straight out win bets seems to be the way to go with little value in exotics either.
For Spring Campaign 2024 tips we will be posting around 10am Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 4: 1-CAVITY BAY $5 WIN
QUINELLA Race 4: 1-CAVITY BAY#5-BRULANTE, 8-LADY SADLER x $4 = 200%
This one has stronger form than most of her opposition, chased hard behind a talented one over in Adelaide last start, forgive the start in the hail at Flemington the start before and worth noting that she settled handy and on-speed in the first preparation. Good barrier here and if she jumps and can settle handy should be extremely hard to beat at around $4.50. Nice value quinella here anchoring with the other two likely on-speed horses at odds the 5-BRULANTE, 8-LADY SADLER.
BEST WIN: Race 9: 6-PRIDE OF JENNI $6 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 9: 6-PRIDE OF JENNI#3-KOVALICA, 7-VIA SISTINA x $4 = 200%
Bit surprised at the odds on offer about POJ in the Cox Plate, everything seems to line up pretty well today. Firm track that is likely to get firmer during the day and favour those on-speed, beaten most of her opposition multiple times and can dictate the race as she pleases. Really hard to run down good horses leading on firm tracks around MV. We might look back and think gees $4.50 was pretty decent odds for a confident win bet. Back straight out and save on the quinella with the main danger the 7-VIA SISTINA and the value runner the 3-KOVALICA who probably runs on well late here off a fast tempo.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 3-SUPERCILIOUS $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 3-SUPERCILIOUS#6,7,8 x $3 = 100%
This one caught the eye last start at MV when held up for runs badly and dashed through on the rails on the turn. Hasn’t raced since, but has had a good jump out. Looks to have some ability, might have to go forward from this barrier being the only concern. Back each way at around $9 and anchor in a quinella with the favourite the -CERTAIN RISE, the 8-SAVAGERY VIBE who didn’t have much luck at Flemington and a good value roughie in the improving 6-TESSA’S CHOICE
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 6-SUPARAZI $4 EW
We have been following this one all spring and he just keeps running good races at double figure odds. Consistently in the finish, placed 22/34 starts and 5/8 here at MV. Last start chased hard against a smart one and they both came down the middle of the track which wasn’t the best ground. Does like to drop back so will need a tactical ride here and maybe even cutting the corner on the inside on the turn, but he is racing really well and worth something each way at around $13.
QUINELLA Race 1: 2-KATSU, 9-FRILLED, 8-UNFLINCHING x $3 = 100%
Box quinella in a fairly open first race of the day, expecting the 2-KATSU to jump and lead, the 9-FRILLED had no luck here last start and should have won and the 8-UNFLINCHING is drawn wide but has a great MV record.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 7-CELUI $2 EW
Just a little spec on a roughie on a day where most of the winners are likely to come from well within the market. Fitter for the two runs in, was competitive against these last start and normally leads so can jump and run and get the rails here and might run a race today at around $34.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 7-POLYMNIA at around $2.70
Sydney filly who is a maiden in a field of lots of improving 3YOs, likely to drop well back from barrier 1 and will need some luck. Has ability but prefer to back others.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a new MV apartment.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 3: 8-SAVAGERY VIBE
PLACE Race 4: 5-BRULANTE
PLACE Race 8: 6-SUPARAZI
PLACE Race 9: 3-KOVALICA
Pretty hard to find any value today, but lets look to on-speed horses in the first two legs and come home on value place getters in the last two legs. Looking at around $300 for a $5 outlay
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 2,7,8 / 4,6,8,10,11 / 6,7 / 2,6,8,9,10 x $20 = 13.33%
Probably not going to be the biggest Quaddie ever recorded, but go narrow in the first and third leg with the main chances and wide in the second and fourth legs which are fairly open, particularly the last leg where the main chances are Sydney back markers that might need luck so throw in some roughies on-speed.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 9: COX PLATE
For the feature Cox Plate the obvious leader is the 6-PRIDE OF JENNI who normally doesn’t jump and run but rolls out and them moves forward early in the race to run to a long lead. The 4-ROYAL PATRONAGE is most likely to sit second and likely to play the dummy role to bring the rest of the field up to the leader, the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE will sit next as is his proven taking the drop pattern, and hoping they might race the 9-EVAPORATE more positively today.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-MR BRIGHTSIDE has been doing everything right this spring and may be coming into this race a bit under the radar (if that is possible). Sure many might say he is not racing as well as previous campaigns, but 4 runs in for one win and three competitive seconds is hardly disappointing. His MV record is excellent and he may go better here. Probably prefers a bit of give in the ground for his best at the elite level and a really firm track would be a negative. Main concern is that he hasn’t won over 2000M in 6 tries, but once again 3 placings from 6 starts at the distance isn’t anything to complain about and he was only just nosed out in this race last year by an international stand-out horse (got a perfect run though). His runs this time in have just about all been identical, taking a sit and trying to reel in tear away leaders and he has only managed to get there once, but to be fair he has got pretty close each time and really chased hard. On the basis of that actually think he is going pretty well and happy to put him in the mix here. Does appear that the 6-PRIDE OF JENNI may have this one covered though from previous meetings. Chance.
2-PROGNOSIS is the highly rated Japanese horse and normally we don’t like betting on unknowns, but the internationals have now won 4 of the last 5 Cox Plates and 5 of the last 6 if you skip over the WINX years, so that’s a pretty imposing record. Only narrowly beaten by ROMANTIC WARRIOR two starts back, and excellent 2000M record so the speed on shouldn’t bother this one. Form guide says can be slowly away? Market is the best guide to this one, pay attention if he is well backed and continues to shorten. Might just be too good for these, but he probably either wins easily or doesn’t place. Chance.
3-KOVALICA had a stand out 3YO classic staying season and continued to race at the top level during his 4YO season and was competitive, but safely held (it happens a lot). Seems to have come back really well this preparation and building as he steps up in distance each start. Would have gone close to winning the Epsom but was closed out for a run just as he was about to launch and hard chase from last to just miss last start in weaker grade. Maybe better suited in handicaps than 2000M WFA, and probably being aimed towards the Melbourne Cup, but just really like the way he is going this time in. Normally the 1600M feature mile horses don’t really measure up in the Cox Plate, but he is a bit different as he has form over distance previously and he is likely to be strong chasing at the end of the 2040M here behind a tear away leader. He seems most similar to the horses who have beaten the 6-PRIDE OF JENNI before so appeals as the best rough chance here. Rough.
4-ROYAL PATRONAGE is an international who has been racing really well in his first preparation in Sydney and been in the finish of each of his starts this time in. Fit and in-form and can jump and race handy here, unfortunately that means he is probably the poor sucker who is going to bring the field up to the favourite. Racing well, but not sure about a fast run and chasing 2000M at this level. No.
5-DOCKLANDS is a UK international miler who was well beaten last start. Doesn’t seem to have the class of the internationals who have won this race previously, and there doesn’t seem to be that much interest in the betting market. Undergone vet check and cleared to run. Drawn barrier 1 around MV and dropping back in the field will be no help. Betting on an unknown and happy to risk.
6-PRIDE OF JENNI has been a sensation since last spring and is always a talking point with her racing pattern. She doesn’t always ping the gates, but revs up the speed early in the race and just keeps going. The last three horses to beat her when she has been in-form, CEOLWULF, 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE and CASCADIAN have all only just got there on the line too – she is an extremely tough horse to get past. So it seems it’s more the back markers chasing her down late that are her main danger, rather than anything racing on-speed. Much made of the early race tactics last start to try and bring her unstuck, and question mark is how much a tough run last week will take out of her backing up into this feature race. She is much better on dry track, she has beaten most of her key rivals more than once, she is likely to strike a leader’s track and find it hard to see her getting beaten. Seems crazy odds at $4.60 but seems punters still don’t believe what they see, with a lot of people talking her down going into this race. Top chance.
7-VIA SISTINA has had the boom on her for some time and hasn’t done much wrong in her 5 Australian starts so far. Well documented that she let the (6) get away in front in the Queen Elizabeth last spring and can forgive the Makybe Diva Stakes run on a heavy track – though worth noting that both times she has run below expectations have been races with 6-PRIDE OF JENNI against her. Turnbull Stakes form is really strong with the Caulfield Cup quinella finishing behind her and she was headed there and fought back well. Much made of the trackwork incident this week, unclear how much that took out of her, more concerned she hasn’t gone around MV under race conditions and be interesting to see if she can handle the turns under pressure to chase. Distance stats are outstanding and stronger at the end of a pressure 2000M than the rest of these. Suspect the money will come for this one and she will start close to favourite. Seems the main danger to the (6) as long as everything is still on track.
8-BROADSIDING is the boom 2YO who hasn’t lived up to the hype this spring, but he has had excuses. Only just got there first-up and then tried to win the Caulfield Guineas off only one run in, which is pretty much historically impossible. Plenty of excuses there, leader’s track, first time Caulfield and he wasn’t beaten that far, but to be fair the 9-EVAPORATE was probably the better run. Faces a similar task here, possible leader’s track, likely to drop well back and is trying to win a Cox Plate off only two runs in and the other 3YOs who have won this race have been successful off more substantial spring campaigns. First time at MV. He will have to make a long hard chase at them here and the light-weight will help, but still think he faces a task here today and happy to risk him.
9-EVAPORATE has had a sensational spring, but is coming into this race as an afterthought with the Caulfield Guineas being the main target and off six runs this time in. The Caulfield Guineas run was sensational, with a more positive ride there he probably wins the race and was only beaten by the track bias. MV form is a very big positive here, and in a few of those wins he had to take off early and wide to get around the race pattern, would be good to see him up sitting handy today with the light weight. Light weight Hong Kong jockey over for the ride. We have been following this one this spring and happy to stick with him, logic would say he is coming to the end of his preparation, but he just keeps racing so well and ticks a lot of boxes here as the fit, in form, lightly weighted MV horse. Rough chance.
Summary: Pretty even Cox Plate field amongst the top few chances and expect there will be strong push and the money will come for one of the top three in the market. Surprised about the odds on offer about the 6-PRIDE OF JENNI around MV and on a possible on-speed track on firm ground she will be extremely hard to run down, but also have to respect that the 7-VIA SISTINA probably has the strongest form lines going into this race. The value runner to watch out for here is the 3-KOVALICA, really like how he is going this time in and suited to a long hard chase to chase down the leader. Best rough outside these is the 9-EVAPORATE. No knock on the favourite the 2-PROGNOSIS, maybe see if the money comes as we can never line up the international form. Good odds about the top pick, wait and see how on-speed the track is and bet confidently if conditions suit, and save each way on the third pick.
Race 1: 2-KATSU, 9-FRILLED, 8-UNFLINCHING
Race 2: 5-IKASARA, 3-BOSUSTOW, 1-BITTERCREEK
Race 3: 3-SUPERCILIOUS, 7-CERTAIN RISE, 8-SAVAGERY VIBE
Race 4: 1-CAVITY BAY, 5-BRULANTE, 8-LADY SADLER
Race 5: 1-FUTURE HISTORY, 3-GEAR UP, 8-KETTLE HILL
Race 6: 2-RED ACES, 4-POLITELY DUN, 7-OPENING ADDRESS
Race 7: 2-OSCAR’S FORTUNE, 8-BARAQIEL, 7-CELUI
Race 8: 6-SUPARAZI, 11-PLENTY OF AMMO, 4-NUGGET
Race 9: 6-PRIDE OF JENNI, 7-VIA SISTINA, 3-KOVALICA
Race 10: 8-PRIVATE LEGACY, 2-WISHLOR LASS, 6-FIRESTORM
