Sunny day Friday, but there are a few showers forecast heading into the weekend and for Saturday, which might just take the edge off the track a little, but shouldn’t have a huge effect. Rail TRUE at MV normally favours those running on wide and swooping off the camber, but don’t be surprised in relatively small fields here to see the on pacers kick on instead today. There doesn’t appear to be much pressure up front in a lot of these races. If significant rain does come expect them to be coming off the rails in the later half of the program and the inside might not be the way to go come the last few races on a double header program.
In the Cox Plate, 8-WINX is going to go around at WINX like odds of $1.15. Pretty hard to see her getting beaten off the stunning Turnbull win, her turn of foot to run away from the field there was sensational. Trying to work out if she is better the Melbourne way of going, or if when she comes down here she is just further into her campaign and over more suitable trips, but her Melbourne wins are better than her Sydney wins. Think the clear 2nd pick is the 3-HUMIDOR, thought the Caulfield Cup run was pretty good when ridden forward against normal racing pattern on a pretty hot speed. Suspect he might go better today than the Turnbull run and always like seeing horses backing off a Caulfield Cup into this race. The 2-GAILO CHOP is a clear leader and fit and in form, if the track pattern favours those on speed he will be there in the finish. The 9-ROYAL SYMPHONY was pretty unlucky in the Caulfield Guineas, but you can get a bit too carried away with 3YOs in this race, and normally prefer them to be on speed and making use of the light weight. Going to be a real buzz around this race and hopefully it will live up to its promise.
Cox Plate day always attract small fields, especially so this year with less than 100 runners across 10 races, and often there are a lot of short priced favourites. Means you can study the entire card on the train on the way to the course. Think the betting plan today would be to have solid win bets and quinellas on some $5 chances though, and we think quite a few of the short priced favourites today represent bad value. We will try and find a bit more value in this week’s Betting Portfolio, but hard to find roughie runners in such small fields.
BEST WIN: Race 2: 4-ROCK ‘N’ GOLD $6 WIN
Track and distance specialist who is absolutely flying at the moment. Flying home here last two starts back and then pounced over the top of them at Cranbourne. Drops back here around the MV 955M, but is drawn out and there should be plenty of speed (bit tricky with three runners here dual engaged for Friday night). Just going better than these at the moment and at the $4.60 on offer looks like a solid win bet.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 3-LUBITION $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 3-LUBITION#4,5,6 x $3 = 100%
Sydney miler who is racing well, and should go to the lead here without much pressure up front and might control this race. Meets the short priced favourite the (5) 3kgs better off from last run for only a 1 length defeat and she fought on well that day. Good 1600M stats. Looks a solid each way bet at around $6.50 and prefer to back her over the favourite. Back each way and again anchor in the quinella, with the main dangers, the 6-OREGON’S DAY, who was really good running on out wide on a leader’s track last start, the favourite the 5-INVINCIBELLA and the value runner the 4-ROCKET COMMANDER, who placed in this race last year and will appreciate the drop in weights.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 1-I’LL HAVE A BIT $4 EW
One of the more open races of the day, $5 the field, and this guy just looks like he is ready to do something. Fitter for the 3 runs in, suited under the weight scale and well drawn today. Does tend to drop back, and there isn’t much speed here should would want them to ride midfield or better. Loomed up like the winner last start at Flemington out wide and just seemed to peak on the run, think with improvement to come is a nice each way bet here at around $7.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 8-SOUND PROPOSITION $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 8-SOUND PROPOSITION#2,3,10 x $3 = 100%
Honest Sydney on pacer miler who has been racing very consistently, and has excellent 1600M stats. There is a bit of speed in this race from the (3) , (4), (5), so just need them to slot in behind here and take a sit and not press forward. If they do they should get a perfect run and present at the right time. Back each way at around $6, and anchor in the quinella with the hopelessly 2-(un)LUCKY HUSSLER, 3-BURNING FRONT, and the value runner in this race is the 10-WYNDSPELLE who was OK in the Toorak and two runs prior were excellent, and will be suited by the fast tempo running on late.
QUINELLA: Race 4: 2-JORDA, 6-BLONDIE, 5-PURE EMOTION boxed x $6 = 200%
Most of this field have had some issues, or are out of form and it is a tough race to line up. Suspect we might get a value winner, and really not interested in backing the $2.30 favourite the (8). The stable mate the (2) has been racing well and is drawn to get a clear run at them, and the two on pacers the (6) and (5) might kick on OK, so let’s try for a value quinella on a day where most dividends are going to be a bit on the skinny side.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 5-SEIZED $2.50 EW
Tricky race and there is a fair bit of speed in this so although this one led last start, hoping they will take a nice sit from a middle barrier. Fought on really well here last start, and although is still a maiden has run some very competitive races in town, normally dropping back and running on late. Looks to be better than the form guide suggests and looks a value rough chance at around $16.
LAY OF THE DAY : Race 2: 2-BADAJOZ at around $3.40
We laid this guy last time and he stung us, but he got the perfect on speed sit, behind the leader on a track favouring on pacers. Dropping back in distance, at the top of the weights and drawn inside and think he will end up trapped back on the inside here behind a fast tempo. Key to the 955M races is getting out at the right time, and think he will need luck for that to happen. Happy to take on, with a disclaimer that the field size stacks up with a few double acceptors over Friday/Saturday.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a house on The Block.
FIRST FOUR: Race 9: 8-WINX / 3-HUMIDOR / 2,4,5,6,9 / 2,4,5,6,9 x $5 = 25%
The Cox Plate First Four still isn’t going to pay that well, but fairly confident that the 3-HUMIDOR is going to run 2nd here, so you just need to fill in the other slots. Just throw in some ridiculous roughies as you need something out of the market to get into the finish for the dividend to be worthwhile.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. SAY HELLO TO WINX
Race 2: 4-ROCK ‘N’ GOLD, 1-GUN CASE, 3-SIRBIBLE.
Race 3: 5-SEIZED, 8-EXPERIMENTATION, 1-SINGLE BULLET
Race 4: 2-JORDA, 6-BLONDIE, 5-PURE EMOTION
Race 5: 3-LUBITION, 6-OREGON’S DAY, 5-INVINCIBELLA
Race 6: 1-BIG DUKE, 3-AUVRAY, 2-LIBRAN
Race 7: 1-I’LL HAVE A BIT, 5-SPEEDWAY, 8-TOUCH OF MINK
Race 8: 8-SOUND PROPOSITION, 10-WYNDSPELLE, 2-LUCKY HUSSLER
Race 9: 8-WINX, 3-HUMIDOR, 2-GAILO CHOP
Race 10: 3-SALSAMOR, 1-CLIFF’S EDGE, 5-VIN DE DANCE
