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No risk
$200 free bet on the Cox Plate !
This week's IASBET special offer is officially insane. |
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| MOONEE VALLEY : COX PLATE - 22nd Oct 2011 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: CLEARING - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Bit of rain around heading into the weekend, which will probably just take the edge off the track, and you would think we would be looking at a track just the worse side of DEAD come Saturday, with just a few showers around. Moonee Valley rail TRUE pretty much always favours those running on, swooping around the camber on the home turn, and it can be hard to lead all the way – though for some reason it is not quite as hard to lead all the way in the Cox Plate. Having said that it is worth noting the fields today are on the smallish side and there is probably not going to be much pressure up front in quite a few of these races. We have actually ended up picking all on pacers in the suggested bets too. As mentioned in the newsletter we do find Cox Plate Day a bit dull from a value betting point of view but at least we have a wide open Cox Plate to play with this year. Really hard to find any value on the rest of the program though and the trifectas and first fours in these races are going to be tiny. Maybe best betting plan is to take solid doubles coupling up a few each way chances and try and get decent collect. We are still struggling to believe the IASBET offer this week. As we read it, effectively you can have a free $200 plonk on something in the Cox Plate, if it loses you get your money back. If it wins, you win. Definitely worth reading up on – follow the link at the top of the page. Just remember it has to be your first bet of the day and read the Terms and Conditions to make sure you make the most of it. RESULTS : Track races evenly, probably isn't that easy to run on out wide, but most of these fields are on the smallish side and there wasn't that much pressure up front in a few of the races. Damn hard trying to find something to bet on though ! Tips just OK, not much value around. BEST BET : Race 6: 4-TULLAMORE $7 WIN 2nd W=$4.10 QUINELLA : 4-TULLAMORE, 5-SHEWAN x $3 QUINELLA : 4-TULLAMORE, 1-AMERICAIN x $3 2nd 4-TULLAMORE W=$4.10, 1st 1-AMERICAIN W=$2.80 QUINELLA = $4.40 = $13.20 QUINELLA : 4-TULLAMORE, 2-BOOMING x $2 SCR $2 Solid staying type backing up after a tough effort in the Caulfield Cup last week. Should be right at his peak now with the 4 runs in, and there isn’t much depth in this field at all with lots of these just making up the numbers. Probably not totally suited under this weight scale but so few of these are going anywhere so just trust his form. Should jump and race handy and there isn’t much else here on pace so should have every chance. Pretty much guaranteed to be in the finish, so back straight out and take quinellas with what seem the only other chances. RESULTS : Rolls on speed with every chance and gives a nice kick on the turn with the favourite trapped back in the pack. Looked good ! But the 1-AMERICAIN barges out and grabs him in a flash - this one is something very special and stay on him in the Melbourne Cup BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 13-KING'S ROSE $5 EW X Quite liking the odds about our top pick in the Cox Plate who is a very professional horse and has done nothing wrong all spring. Likely to jump and slot in here on the rails just behind the leaders and as long as she can get out in the straight she should be in this finish. Nice each way bet in a value Cox Plate. Currently around $13. RESULTS : Does get the perfect trail on the speed, but gets blocked for a run at a crucial stage when trying to run into the race before the turn. Finished well beaten, but suspect if the run had came she would have been right in the finish here. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 2-GINGA DUDE $5 EW X Quality NZ on pacer who will appreciate a bit of rain around and should get the lead here without too much worry from barrier 2. Not really that much else to take him on either so suspect he is going to get a pretty cosy run on the speed here. Has shown ability over here before last spring. Tough win here with 60kgs on night program a few weeks back and then can probably forgive the Cranbourne Cup run where he was leading comfortably, but one went up and around him in an early burst which we suspect has probably bought him undone. Just think the $16 on offer at the moment looks damn silly and he is right in this race. Solid each way bet. RESULTS : Ends up trailing a leader, thereabouts on the turn but just plugs away and misses a place. Doesn't actually seem to be going as well this time in. BEST ROUGH : Race 9: 10-SOPHIE’S SPIRIT $2.50 EW SCR This one seems to have improved this preparation. Fitter for the 2 runs in and they have both been excellent, rolling on the speed and should be at peak for today’s race. Good MV record, another who can go to the lead here and there isn’t going to be much pressure up front. Should be in this for a long way and nice get out chance at $20 to end the day if required. QUINELLA : Race 2: 5-TWILIGHTING, 2-EURYALE x $5 X Let’s try and get rolling early here. The (5) was a very impressive all the way leader and winner here on a night program recently and quite likely will do the same again. The (2) had no luck at all 2 starts back at Caulfield and then fair effort at Flem where they weren’t really running on and finished alongside GLIDING who won last week. Should get a trail on the rails behind the leader and suspect these two fight this race out. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 1: 4-RISE TO THE TOP at around $3.00 4th W=$4.00 OK so we don’t bet in the early 2YO races, but no reason why you can’t lay them. Big field of untried 2YOs, almost certainly one will get backed, or one will step up, so taking the $3 currently on offer about the one who has actually had a run and has some form seems a little silly. Drawn out and probably drops well back here in a hustle bustle 2YO race around MV. Just lay him and have the rest of the field running for you, something will surely step up. RESULTS : Lobs in a handy position and does get blocked for a run at a crucial stage, wasn't a bad effort actually. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUINELLA : Race 8: 4-GLASS HARMONIUM, 13-KING'S ROSE x $2 QUINELLA : Race 8: 4-GLASS HARMONIUM, 9-REKINDLED INTEREST x $2 3rd 9-REKINDLED INTEREST W=$8.90 QUINELLA : Race 8: 4-GLASS HARMONIUM, 11-PINKER PINKER x $1 1st 11-PINKER PINKER W=$20.30 In a wide open Cox Plate you can probably do worse than just take quinellas around the one that you know will be up on the speed, rolling along, whilst the rest of them are trying to make long sustained runs into the race out wide. Sure he might find one better, but suspect is going to be in this for a long way and at around $12 there should be a lot of value in the quinellas here, especially if you stray away from the favourites. RESULTS : 4-GLASS HARMONIUM is very fractious before the start, not happy in the stalls with the roaring crowd and it was obvious he was going to miss the jump. Chances pretty much finished once he did - as he likes to race on the speed. Shame cause we were all over the finish with the other selections including the value winner of the Cox Plate. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $20.20 NET : $-29.80 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO. SLEEP IN Race 2: 5-TWILIGHTING, 2-EURYALE, 4-CLASSIC ELLE Race 3: 2-MISS STELLABELLE, 6-BECKON, 7-RED RAIN Race 4: 1-MANAWANUI, 2-COLLAR, 4-I FEEL GOOD Race 5: 5-BLACK CAVIAR, 4-BALAVAN, 1-SCENIC BLAST Race 6: 4-TULLAMORE, 5-SHEWAN, 1-AMERICAIN Race 7: 2-GINGA DUDE, 6-LUEN YAT FOREVER, 9-TESTA MY PATIENCE Race 8: 13-KING'S ROSE, 4-GLASS HARMONIUM, 9-REKINDLED INTEREST Race 9: 10-SOPHIE’S SPIRIT, 6-HI BELLE, 1-LADY LYNETTE |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-TWILIGHTING 2-EURYALE 4-CLASSIC ELLE 3rd W=$3.10 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-MISS STELLABELLE 2nd W=$6.30 6-BECKON 7-RED RAIN |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-MANAWANUI 1st W=$1.20 *** Woo Hoo. Great Cox Plate Day value *** 2-COLLAR 2nd W=$5.90 4-I FEEL GOOD Quinella : $1.30 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-BLACK CAVIAR 1st W=$1.04 4-BALAVAN SCR 1-SCENIC BLAST |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-TULLAMORE 2nd W=$4.10 5-SHEWAN 1-AMERICAIN 1st W=$2.80 Quinella : $4.40 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-GINGA DUDE 6-LUEN YAT FOREVER 9-TESTA MY PATIENCE 1st W=$5.70 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-KING'S ROSE 4-GLASS HARMONIUM 9-REKINDLED INTEREST 3rd W=$8.90 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-SOPHIE’S SPIRIT SCR 6-HI BELLE 3rd W=$5.50 1-LADY LYNETTE 2nd W=$5.00 |
| RACE 8: COX PLATE 2040M GROUP 1 WFA |
| Tips: 13-KING'S ROSE 4-GLASS HARMONIUM 9-REKINDLED INTEREST 3rd W=$8.90 |
| Others:11,7,12 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 4-GLASS HARMONIUM, 14-HELMET Handy : 6-SINCERO, 11-PINKER PINKER, 13-KING'S ROSE, 15-AVIENUS Back : 1-EFFICIENT, 3-WALL STREET, 5-JIMMY CHOUX, 7-LION TAMER, 8-PLAYING GOD, 9-REKINDLED INTEREST, 10-SHAMROCKER, 12-SECRET ADMIRER Chances: 4-GLASS HARMONIUM is a very consistent on pacer who quickly adapted to his new Australian digs with a solid QLD winter preparation. Form this spring has been very solid and he should be right at peak today with the 3 runs in. 1st up run was excellent, he was trapped 3 wide on the speed on a very windy day when you needed cover and still fought on very well. 2nd up in the Underwood he got a little worked up and over raced, and although got a clear lead he compounded pretty quickly in the straight. The 3rd up run in the Turnbull though was excellent, he led, and seriously kicked clear in the straight and it really took everything the favourite had to come out and chase him home there. Likely leader here from barrier 4 on the rails. Although MV rail TRUE normally favours those running on, the Cox Plate often does allow them to lead all the way for some reason. The (14) here is the obvious one to take him on in the lead, but apart from that there isn't that much pressure up front. Suspect this one is going to put in a big run today and be in this for a long way making his own luck on the speed. Strong chance. 7-LION TAMER is going to be the unknown factor in this. Lightly raced, shows a stack of ability, dominant win in the VRC Derby last year on a bog track, then showed it wasn’t a fluke with gushing, swooping win in the Underwood Stakes. Beat home the Caulfield Cup winner there too. Sent out a stupid short priced favourite in the Caulfield Stakes, when dropped too far back in a leader dominated race, but was extremely disappointing. Trainer didn’t seem too fussed at all though, they are pushing on, and putting blinkers on today which apparently solves all problems. Might try it ourselves. Drawn an outside barrier, but just has to drop back, bide his time and make a run around them at the 600M. Unless they decide to go forward? Worth noting he did lead in both the AAMI Vase and the VRC Derby last spring. He is the unknown factor here, you can probably forgive them one bad run, and he has the class to win this and has the untapped talent. Many of these are just above average milers, suspect this one might be the genuine class WFA horse. Hard to back with confidence though off a crap run, but definitely a strong rough chance here and one to keep safe. Rough. 9-REKINDLED INTEREST is one that can be hard to follow. Showed a stack of potential as a 3YO with stunning finishing bursts for 4ths to 6ths and first to admit we got sucked in pretty much every start which was costly. Seems to have stepped up though this spring, flew home in the Aurie Star and sat on the speed (against normal racing pattern) in the Memsie and just whacked away. At that stage we dropped off – and of course he got his birthday in the Dato Tan and won – who couldn’t see that coming ? That race was a dawdling stop start affair, many of his main rivals where held up or didn’t get clear runs and he could just sit out the back of them biding his time and whoosh past them. To be honest thought that was his day and was planning to drop off him rest of the spring. Turnbull Stakes run was pretty good though, he was finishing on hard and fighting on well and with so many of the main Cox Plate chances dropping by the wayside he has to be rated a chance today. Seems to go best at MV and the camber does suit his finishing swoop. Has the class turn of foot to win a Cox Plate. Interestingly they have waited till today to put the blinkers on which you would think would add extra improvement. Definitely a top of the ground horse so if much rain comes demote him – and there is a bit of weather around at the moment. Interesting ride from barrier 3 here – and that is probably the main worry for us – doubt they will want to go forward cause his best races are finishing hard late, but can just see him bottled up back in the field here on the inside when the pressure goes on and he may end up being the unlucky runner in this race. Solid 2000M WFA horse though so think you have to rate him a genuine chance here. Chance. 3rd W=$8.90 11-PINKER PINKER has been going along very nicely this spring and competitive in everything she contests. Right at peak now with the 4 runs in, nothing between her and the (13) here in the Stock Stakes which is the form race of the spring. Solid effort in the Epsom when burst through pack and was right in the finish, but the (12) had already whooshed for home and the race was all over. Bit of give in the track suits, as does being drawn out a bit, she can slot in handy just behind the leaders here and be guaranteed a clear run into the race. Question is how good she is past 1600M ? Her two staying attempts in the Autumn were fair, but not really conclusive either way. Interesting that she is still entered for the Melbourne Cup though ? Think the margin in the Epsom probably flattered the (12) a little and this one is going to go better Melb way of going. Just really like her barrier, she is fit, in form, honest, she will go forward here and sit outside, and handy, get a clear crack at them and be given every chance. She is the value runner for first fours and trifectas. Great rough value bet here. 1st W=$20.30 12-SECRET ADMIRER is a smart one on the way up from Sydney who put in a super impressive, full of running performance to win the Epsom. Drops back, but has a powerful finishing burst and looks to have the turn of foot to be a factor here. First time Melb way of going though, into a Cox Plate at MV and that is a very big challenge. First time past 1600M too. How many previous winners of this race how not won or raced over 2000M before hand (don’t count the 3YOs !) ? Just those niggly unknowns which means she would have to be extra, extra special to step up here and win. Drawn middle gate, probably drops well back though. Has the ability to win this and no surprise to see her win, but just a little chance for us. Some chance 13-KING'S ROSE has been doing everything right this spring and is vastly under rated in our books. Solid NZ 3YO filly classic form. Amazing that she came out and won like she did 1st up - one of Moody’s with very little in the way of betting support. Repeated the dose in the Stock Stakes, and then loomed up like the winner in the Toorak and just didn’t quite get to the leader. She was originally entered for the Epsom the week before and was SCR with a minor injury, so reported she was a little under done going into the Toorak. Right at peak now with the 3 runs in. Best thing about her is that she is so professional, she puts herself into the race at the right time. Possible she does stop and wait a bit when she hits the front, though the winkers went on last start to address that. 2 from 2 over the 2000M, but probably she is better as a miler. She can get the rails here behind the leader, so gets a dream run, just a matter if she can get out and get a clear crack at them. She is a clear top pick in this for us – and amazed by the odds on offer, has not set a foot wrong this spring, very professional horse , probably slots into perfect run here on rails just behind the speed, and as long as she can get off the rails behind the leaders here she is going to be in the finish. Top pick. Place: 5-JIMMY CHOUX is the very highly rated NZ visitor and the NZ form has proven to be very strong this year. Imposing win strike rate, right at peak with the 3 runs in and form is excellent. Has beaten home the (3) twice already this spring, and KING MUFHASA came out and won the Toorak, and the (7) won the Underwood, so the NZ form is looking very strong indeed this year. Unbeaten at the 2000M, handles all going and drawn out probably isn’t too bad cause it means he can swoop around them and have a clear crack at them in the straight. Does have a bit of a spruik on him though, Rosehill Guineas win was good, but then started stupidly short odds the start after in the AJC Derby. Was well held by the (9) during track work during the week – what ever that counts for ? Suspect he will get very well backed, and obviously a strong chance, just suspect he either wins or runs nowhere, so maybe in a very open field just prefer to go for some more value. Solid chance, but prefer place in a race where there is more value about others. 2nd W=$5.80 14-HELMET is the boom 3YO and he could not have been more impressive in his Caulfield Guineas and Guineas Prelude wins. Both wins were very similar, hard, dry tracks, in the Prelude he got a sit on a tear away leader, in the Guineas very aggressively ridden to lead and extremely strong effort to hang on down the straight even when the 2nd place getter had the sit on him. Seems to have turned it all around, before that in Sydney he was doing a lot wrong, not jumping cleanly, over racing. A quality 3YO can definitely win this race, an above average 3YO is always competitive. A few things bother us with this one though. The 3YOs who win this race are normally more staying types – OCTAGANOL, SAVABEEL, SO YOU THINK, and although the sprinter, milers are competitive they don’t normally win. He does appear to be a nuggetty sprinter miler. He has been ridden aggressively last two starts and loved the super fast speed, just don’t think that is sustainable over the 2040M here and stable have admitted they will ride him more quietly today. Think he has benefited from the fast speed, the rails and the firm track last 2 starts and just see him caught outside the (4) here, wanting to go faster and using up all his energy, or being forced to burn to the lead. Did hold on over the 1600M last start but you would have to think the 2040M here is going to be a question mark, especially in a pressure race. Does look way above average, just not sure he is the type of 3YO to win this race though and happy to take him on today as favourite. Risking. Sacking: 1-EFFICIENT is the old time Melbourne Cup winner who has been injury plagued for a few years now and just pops up now and then for special guest appearances. Had a solid 2 years off before this spring. Fitter for the 2 runs in and did make a bit of ground at the end of the Turnbull so you would think he is just about ready to run into form. Did win the AAMI Vase here as a 3YO, but generally he does save his best form for Flemington. Worth noting he did win the Turnbull 3rd up in 2009 and he has been known to suddenly spring into form. Would have the ability to win this if right, and plus is that he can just sit out the back here with no expectations and do his own thing, but can't seriously recommend till we see some genuine form. 2-DESCARADO SCR 3-WALL STREET is a top line NZ miler who should be at his peak now with the 3 runs in and ready to do something. Just behind the place getters in the Toorak, but the question here probably is if he is as good over the 2000M. 2000M WFA winner in NZ last year leading into this race, when he was well held, but jockey reported he was unsettled by the big crowd and the staggering price of a beer. Likely to drop back here. Has plenty of ability and is largely forgotten leading into this race so can't write off entirely. Does look held on NZ form though by the (5) here. Mainly the concern is he really wasn't that competitive last year in this race even with better form so in an even field probably need to pass on him again this year. Risking. 4th W=$64.40 6-SINCERO is a Sydney sider on the up with a very good win strike rate – as do many of these. Going through spring nicely. Bombed out in the Epsom when apparently did not like the inside barrier and gets some weight turn around against the (12), but not enough to turn around the margin. Was just OK in the Caulfield Stakes, jockey said he would be better for the run in the opposite direction, he did seem to be one batting coming around the turn and hard ridden, but he did stick on OK at the end of the race. Realistically though he has been well beaten by the (15) there and she will start double the odds here so you would probably prefer to be on her. Might also be a genuine top of the ground horse. Last run was just OK, that was first run over the 2000M , but not a huge fun of being on the milers going into the Cox Plate, they are rarely a winning chance. Passing. 8-PLAYING GOD is one we thought was going to step up to the big time this spring, but really has been pretty disappointing. Huge potential as a 3YO and Australian Cup and Australian Guineas runs were excellent in the Autumn. But this spring has been largely the same story week after week. It involves looming up just after they straighten, looming up and looking like you are going to whoosh pass the whole field in a stunning burst – and then just whacking away for a well beaten 4th to 5th. Well beaten by the (4), (7), and (15) in various races so far this spring and you wouldn’t think there is much improvement left with a solid 5 runs in. Drawn out, will drop back here, but really looks like he needs to drop back to a solid handicap to be competitive. No 10-SHAMROCKER is another who really looked the goods as a 3YO, beating the boys on more than one occasion and you would have thought that she would have stepped up this spring and been a major player. Fitter for the 3 runs in this spring, but she really has not shown anything to recommend her. 1st up just even, 2nd up wouldn’t settle and raced erratically which is normally a sign something is not quite right and 3rd up just an even effort. Surprised they actually pushed on with her cause she does seem to be struggling. She is a dry track, Flemington plenty of room horse so barrier 1, MV Cox Plate doesn’t look ideal either. No 15-AVIENUS is one of our favourite horses and we had totally dropped off her this spring, but she actually seems to have turned it all around. She was on fire last spring, great win in the Stock Stakes and should have won the Toorak Handicap. She attempted the MV 2040M twice last spring, in the JRA Cup where she had every chance and just didn’t seem to run the trip, and in the Cox Plate where she showed a bit of a burst before the turn and ran a solid 6th. That run did seem to break her though and she really struggled for form during the Autumn. Taken forever to find form this spring too, did think she was finished, but last 2 runs have been solid. Both have been very similar, she has had dream sits behind the leader, dream gaps, she has came out and loomed up and ran on well, but not good enough to win. Think to be a winning chance here you would have probably wanted to see her win one of those races where she had every chance. Not beaten far over the 2000M last start, but still think she is probably suspect at the trip, especially in a high pressure Cox Plate. Drawn outside here, probably sits wide and hard to see her being a factor. No. 16-YOSEI SCR Summary: Refreshing to have a wide open Cox Plate with plenty of value, as so often there is an out and out best horse in Australia to compete with. Often the Cox Plate is a high pressure race with everyone peeling out 600M from home and going for it, but it is amazing how often the leaders can win this race when you look back over the history of past winners. Although obviously the on pacer winners are often the stand out best horse in Australia at the time. Question is going to be here who can run out a classy WFA 2000M, and who is just an above average miler ? This field is packed with horses from the Epsom and the Toorak and realistically horses coming through those races don’t normally win the Cox Plate – just 3 times in the last 20 years and there have been plenty go around in that time. It is also worth noting with the past winners that the vast majority of them had lead up runs over the 2000M or further, in the Caulfield Stakes , Caulfield Cup or Turnbull. So that’s a push for 7-LION TAMER, 4-GLASS HARMONIUM, 9-REKINDLED INTEREST and they are the ones who probably appeal as more the class WFA types. There is no doubt that outstanding 3YOs are very hard to beat in this race, and even above average 3YOs are very competitive, but we just wonder if 14-HELMET is the right sort of 3YO for this race. The 2040M is likely to be as far as he wants. If he goes to the lead suspect he is going to burn out and over race, he has been racing so aggressively his last two starts. If he sits outside the leader not sure he is going to be that happy. No doubt he has a stack of ability, but happy to take him on today. Got a sneaking feeling he is actually going to be the first horse beaten, but our form has been rather off this spring so that is begging to punch us in the face – hard. Only two possible leaders here are 4-GLASS HARMONIUM and 14-HELMET and suspect they will sit outside the leader on the 3YO and try and get him to settle. Handy behind the lead should be 11-PINKER PINKER, 13-KING'S ROSE and both of these are the value runners here and should get every chance in the race. Going to give a very strong push for the 13-KING'S ROSE here, done nothing wrong this spring, extremely professional, should get dream run on the rails and just needs to get out and into the race at the right time. Don’t underestimate the proven 2000M WFA on pacer here 4-GLASS HARMONIUM who might just cause the boil over, whilst the others are trying to run into it 600M from home and he is off and running and has got a break on them. Have to respect the 9-REKINDLED INTEREST who again appeals as the more class 2000M WFA type horse. Wide open race though and plenty of value about whatever you like and think the best plan is to back a few at nice each way odds. One to risk: 14-HELMET 8th W=$2.80 Roughie: 11-PINKER PINKER 1st W=$20.30 The Key: Who has the WFA class and is not just an above average miler ? RESULTS : Race changes complexion a bit when 4-GLASS HARMONIUM misses the start, but they go along at a genuine tempo. Short priced favourite 14-HELMET has every chance rolling on the speed, but is one of the first ones beaten - as predicted in the form preview. Wasn't just us though - can't remember a race where so many racing writers were so keen to knock the favourite. Gave a good push for the value winner and best roughie 11-PINKER PINKER who was the benefit of a great ride. 13-KING'S ROSE missed the run at a crucial stage, 3-WALL STREET and 1-EFFICIENT both good. Forgive 4-GLASS HARMONIUM the run. |
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