This mid-week meeting at Caulfield has been in a state of flux for quite a few years now and it’s pretty hard to keep up with what races are on and what they mean. The Coongy Cup is now the feature race of the day and the last race of the program, meaning it is no longer a qualifier for the Caulfield Cup on Saturday. Has to be said though this is a decent betting program with fields with some depth, we have had a few years of small fields and little to no interest in recent years.
They have also changed the rail movements the last few years, previously the rail used to stay TRUE for the mid-week meeting and then move out for the Caulfield Cup meeting, last 5 years or so they have moved the rail well out for the mid-week meeting (because no Group 1 on this day anymore) and then back in for Saturday. Rail out 12M is a long way out, and as long as there isn’t much rain the pattern should favour those on-speed or making runs through the field close to the rails, so look for those on-speed and well-drawn.
For Spring Campaign 2023 tips will be posted around 10am on raceday (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 6: 4-MARBLE ARCH $6 WIN
Looks a very promising type and showed a good turn of foot to win first-up over in Adelaide. Speed on here will suit and drawn to get into clear running with a class finish. Maintains a good win strike rate and probably a horse on the up this spring. Back straight out at around $5.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 10-STAUNCH $4 EW, QUINELLA 6,7,8,10 boxed x $3 = 50%
This one has been racing extremely consistent this time in, ended up right at the back of the field last start at Sandown and weaved his way through the field to finish into the placings. Much better ridden on-speed and if they can settle handy today he should put himself into the finish here at around $14. Nice value box quinella here with the 7-FLAMIN’ ROMANS on-speed, the 6-CORONA LAD who needs a good tempo and for them to be running on, and the 8-RISE TO IT the other on-pacer.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 2-BEAST MODE $4 EW, QUINELLA Race 7: 1,2,10,14 boxed x $3 = 50%
This one has been racing really well, jumping and burning to the lead and he is hard to run down when he gets a clear lead on a dry track. Just was swooped late at the MV night meeting and led on a swoopers track there the start before, but won his last start this track and distance leading all the way. Might be some pressure up front here but if he can jump to a clear lead he will be very hard to run down. Back each-way at around $5 and there is a nice value quinella here with the very consistent 1-TWIN PERFECTION, the strong finishing 10-SCULLY first-up off a strong speed and a good on pace roughie here in the 14-SPARKLING (always forgive a Flemington straight track run).
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 5-TOO CLOSE THE SUN $4 EW
This one hasn’t won for 1145 days (and counting) but there was a 98 week spell in there too and you can’t win if you are not in a race. His best races are jumping on-speed and he has an excellent 2000M record and liked the last start when he lengthened nicely to the line. Fitter for that run and if the track stays firm and favours those on-speed he is going to be hard to run down here at around $11.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 6-ACTA NON VERBA $2.50 EW
Really hard to line up all these coming off maiden wins and there probably isn’t that much between them. This bet is pretty straight forward, he looks the leader so worth something rough at $18.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 14-WAY UP HIGH $2 EW
We ended up with a $150 chance on top in the staying race on Saturday, who didn’t do too badly to run 7th. Point is most of these staying races are pretty even fields and most of them don’t have form that is that great so there often isn’t that much between them. Assuming there was something wrong with this one at his last start at Flemington when he dropped out quickly from the lead, and he normally lobs on-speed and looked to be building towards a win this time in prior starts. Jockey Kennedy is riding extremely well, comes in under the limit on the claim and whilst he definitely is a long shot, he probably doesn’t deserve to be $126 against this field. Just a little amusing bet on a $120 shot. Why not.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 11-LE MANS at around $4
This one has been racing OK, but has had every chance at most runs this time in. Import who may improve out to the 2000M distance but also likely to drop back here and think he is under the odds and prefer to back others.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into some more couches for Caulfield.
FIRST FOUR: Race 6: 4,6 / 4,6 / 3,5,9,10,11,12 / 3,5,9,10,11,12x $5 = 8.33%
The 4-MARBLE ARCH and 6-REGAL ZEUS are both racing extremely well and are up against the short-priced favourite the 9-VERDAD who is starting to become costly to follow. If the favourite fails to produce, then there is a nice value First Four here with plenty at odds who can run into the finish including the 3-BEL AIR, 10-PRINCE OF HELENA and 12-SOUL CHOICE to blow out the dividend.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 5,6,7,8: 6,9,10,11 / 4,6 / 1,2,10,14,15 / 5,8,9 x $20 = 16.67%
Some even races in the quaddie so if you can find something out of the ordinary the dividend will probably be OK. Narrowing it down to two good value in-form chances in the second leg and going wider in the sprint and coming home on selections in the last leg.
Feature Race Preview: Race 8: COONGY CUP
For a small field we actually have a fair bit of speed in this race with the 5-TOO CLOSE THE SUN leading from the 7-INDEPENDENT ROAD (SCRATCHED), the 2-SMOKIN’ ROMANS behind them and the 3-MANKAYAN and 4-TOURISTIC settling handy. Can’t see the leaders really taking each other on here though and good chance for something to lead and dictate here. With the scratching of the (7) good chance the 5-TOO CLOSE THE SUN will jump to a clear lead here.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-BERKELEY SQUARE has always promised a lot, but he has quite often started well in the market and ran on well late without winning. Seems to have turned it around and has now won 3 out of last 5 compared to 0 from 10 before that. Jockey Kennedy has been riding this one a treat, getting him out into clear ground early so he can make a long hard run at them. We have always had him flagged as a big track horse though, slightly wary here at Caulfield with rail out 12M he won’t have time to wind up and run into the race. Chance with considerable reservations.
2-SMOKIN’ ROMANS started favourite in the Caulfield Cup only two years ago after winning the Turnbull Stakes and now he is going around in the Coongy. Yet to win in 12 starts since the Caulfield Cup run and has been dropping back in class each time. Best form is on wet ground and coming into this off a two month lay-off is a considerable ask. Will race handy though which may be a positive. Passing.
3-MANKAYAN hasn’t won a race for two years and was well held first-up at Sandown. Second-up here and would have to improve pretty rapidly, but he can race on-speed from a good barrier which will be a plus today and worth noting he has placed his last three starts here at Caulfield. Does prefer give in the ground though and prefer place. Place.
4-TOURISTIC is a handy Sydney stayer and another who prefers give in the ground. Well drawn and can go forward and has been contesting harder races up in Sydney. There isn’t much depth to this field and his form is probably better than these so a strong each way chance today.
5-TOO CLOSE THE SUN usually goes forward and is the likely leader in this race from barrier 1. Firm track and 2000M suits, but note it has been 1144 days since his last win (and counting), but there was a 98 week spell in there. Dry track and 2000M is his go, and he hasn’t struck the right race for a while and this looks extremely suitable today. Strong chance.
6-MYSTERY ISLAND is a fair enough stayer who is normally better over further and is likely to drop back here. Watch the market on this one, he ran on well first-up and could improve rapidly and doesn’t strike much in the way of opposition here. Prefer place.
7-INDEPENDENT ROAD is a really tough on-speed dry track 2000M horse who looks perfectly suited in this race. Fitter for the two runs in and should be ready to peak today, lobbed on-speed at Sandown and stuck on OK racing another leader and expecting improvement from that run. He is really hard to get past when rolling on-speed and a strong chance here. SCRATCHED
8-KINGSWOOD is an import who did little in two Australian starts and then changed stables and was very impressive winning last start at Sandown. Swooped and stretched out to the line there in an impressive win and looks to have a class edge over these. Likely to drop back but looks to have the turn of foot to win this and hard to beat, only question is the rail out 12M on a turning track. Strong chance.
9-STAR VEGA has been racing consistently for quite a while, but he has had a pretty long preparation. Worth noting the (1) came from well behind him last start and went past him, but this one fought it out pretty well to the line and gets a 1.5 kgs turnaround from that race. Would probably want some rain but is more versatile than some others here and hard to knock form. Chance
Summary:
This is a quite tricky race to line up, and quite an open race. The 8-KINGSWOOD was very smart winning last time, but has to reproduce that around Caulfield with the rail out 12M. The 5-TOO CLOSE THE SUN will probably get a clear lead now and will be hard to beat if the track is favouring those on-speed, and probably wants the track to stay firm. So think we would prefer to back for value, 5-TOO CLOSE THE SUN on top but we want to see him ridden to the lead on a dry track, from the 8-KINGSWOOD who will win this if he repeats his Sandown form and the ultra-consistent 9-STAR VEGA. Best outside of these is the 4-TOURISTIC.
Race 1: 10-STAUNCH, 7-FLAMIN’ ROMANS, 6-CORONA LAD
Race 2: 3-TREASURETHE MOMENT, 6-ACTA NON VERBA, 4-COMANCHE MISS
Race 3: 6-FIGHTING ARROW, 9-QUANTUM CAT, 14-WAY UP HIGH
Race 4: EARLY 2YO. NO BET
Race 5: 9-PRIVATE JUMBO, 10-RUSSIAN METEOR, 11-HE’S GODSPEED
Race 6: 4-MARBLE ARCH, 6-REGAL ZEUS, 3-BEL AIR
Race 7: 2-BEAST MODE, 1-TWIN PERFECTION, 14-SPARKLING
Race 8: 5-TOO CLOSE THE SUN, 8-KINGSWOOD, 9-STAR VEGA
