Somehow we are at Caulfield Guineas Day already this spring and will be good to be able to focus on the racing for a week. Rail goes back to the TRUE position for the first time since Memsie Stakes Day and there is little in the way of wind and rain, unlike the last few weekends in Melbourne which have been horrific. Firm track and think we will want to look on those on-speed and well-drawn today so keep a close eye on the racing pattern.
Quite a few short priced favourites around today but still plenty to bet on. We normally go pretty well Caulfield Guineas Day and coming off a profit last week we are going to double up again to $100 in the Betting Portfolio and take a range of bets over the day to mix it up.
For Spring Campaign 2024 we will post tips on Saturday morning around 10am (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview for both the Caulfield Guineas and Toorak Handicap at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 4: 3-SEE YOU IN HEAVEN $15 WIN
Looks a fairly open mares races, but this one beat most of these home clearly last start at Flemington when the leader pinched a break in the hail storm, but this one was making serious ground late. All the others that ran on behind her fought out the finish at MV in the mares feature last start and that form has stood up well. Class mare, would just like to see a more positive ride from a good barrier and if she is up and running behind the speed on the turn she should let down in the straight and just about win this. Back straight out at around $4.50
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 16-SUPERAZI $7.50 EW, QUINELLA 16-SUPERAZI #,6,7,9,14 x $4 = 100%
Really consistent type who doesn’t always get the best of luck in his races. Flew home late in both MV runs this preparation and then still made late ground taken up to Sydney. Excellent distance and dry track stats and looks ready to win a race. Does drop back so will need them to be running on OK but there should be really good speed in this race with the 5-BUFFALO RIVER running them along and he will be suited in a strung out field. Back each way at around $15 and anchor in a quinella with the favourite the 7-JIMMYSSTAR who looks hard to beat but may be vulnerable stepping up sharply in distance and if the favourite fails then there is good value quinella with the on-speed 14-RUN HARRY RUN, and strong finishing 6-COASTWATCH, and value runner in the 9-VON HAUKE. This is our main bet of the day at good value.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 3-EVAPORATE $7 EW, QUINELLA 3-EVAPORATE#1,5,6,8 x $4 = 100%
Away from the favourite in the Caulfield Guineas, most of these are queries at 1600M, so this one actually looks a pretty safe each way bet coming off three good MV 1600M wins so we know he will run out the distance. Question will be if he can transfer his MV form to Caulfield, but those MV wins were really good, in a few of them he had to go early and wide to get around the racing pattern. Likely to see a more positive ride here and should be up and siting just behind the speed on the turn and think he is a genuine chance of upsetting the short priced favourite here who will be giving them a start in what might not be a fast run race. Back each way at round $13 looks great odds and if the favourite 1-BROADSIDING fails to produce his best then there is a great value quinella with the likes of 5-MAYFAIR on-speed, 6-WANARUAH on-speed with blinkers on first time and the roughie 8-FEROCE.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 9-BELLATRIX STAR $6 EW
Have been stung by this one the last two starts so looking to recover some lost funds and dignity. Absolutely flying this time in, thought the wet track was the difference at Flemington, but then she came out and did the same thing at MV when dashed through to win with some class. She is a 3YO up against the older sprinting horse, but gets a massive weight pull at only 51kgs and this field isn’t that strong and she has form and race fitness over these. Looks very hard to beat at around $6
QUINELLA: Race 1: 2,8,11,13 boxed x $6 = 100%
Looks a bit of value in the first race of the day which is pretty open. The 8-SABAN looks to be a good horse on the way up, and the first-up win at Flemington was very impressive, but may get stuck behind runners here in a big field with an inside barrier. The 11-EXTREME VIRTURE can make his own luck up on speed leading with first use of the track, the 13-PLATINUM DESTROYER showed a good turn of foot to win last start and the 2-FLASH FEELING is ready to do something with three runs this time in and on a firm track. Looks a nice value box quinella to start the day.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 5-SYMPHONY OF COLOUR $2.50 EW
We were very keen on this one last start at Sandown and to be honest the ride wasn’t the best, horse dropped out to the back of the field and was fighting the rider most of the way trying to settle and then didn’t fully let down when racing unkindly. Dropping back to 1000M probably didn’t help either. Start before at Flemington was excellent when came across the field to get into clear running and made good ground late. Back to 1200M today, jockey change and has raced handy before so hopefully they just let her run today at around $18.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 11-SHAIME $3 EW
Good on-speed sprinter on her day and might get a suitable race here. Was right in the finish against many of these last start here, leading on a day when runners on were suited. Drawn well and likely leader here on a firm track that may favour those on-speed and she looks to get a clear and uncontested lead in this. Love it when they jump and run over the Caulfield 1200M so we want to see her running along in a clear lead and if that is the case she may be hard to run down at around $30.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 14-COMMANDO DRIFT $4 EW, QUINELLA 9,10,13,14 boxed x $6 = 100%
This one is our top pick as well so more than a normal roughie. Stayer who has some ability but hasn’t won as many races as she should because of her drop back and run on racing pattern. Placed 4/6 over the distance and has been racing pretty well this time in, weaved through the field and hit the line strongly in Sydney and then was finishing on well at Mornington where there wasn’t enough speed on and race wasn’t run to suit. Will need them to be running on today, but like that she is drawn out and getting a long clear run at them and doesn’t strike the strongest form race here. Back each way at a massive $51 (!!), and there is a stack of value in the quinellas here with the 10-DASHING DUCHESS rolling along on-speed, the 9-HERMAN HESSE who should settle handy and another roughie the 13-THINK’N’FLY who may box-seat here. Probably want to throw one of the more favoured runners in as well, but some good value rough chances here.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 15-HAARACAINE at around $6
Big even field of stayers and although this one is lightly raced and in winning form, he faces a massive task stepping up from 1600M to 2400M into a field of fit tough stayers (most of whom to be fair are not going that well). Definitely has a stack of potential and likely to go on this spring, just suspect he finds one better as the current favourite.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into even more new couches for Caulfield.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 3: 9-EXTRATWO
PLACE Race 4: 7-LADY JONES
PLACE Race 5: 16-SUPERAZI
PLACE Race 7: 2-VOW AND DECLARE
Looking at around $250 for a $5 outlay, kicking off with two well in the market who should be in the finish, the main bet of the day Race 5: 16-SUPERAZI looks a good value place bet finishing on late and always love getting on old-timer Race 7: 2-VOW AND DECLARE the place at long odds on a dry track.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 1 / 1,3,5,6,8 / 1,4,8,9 / 3,4,7,11,13 x $20 = 20%
If the three short priced favourites win the quaddie legs we will be lucky to get back 50 cents, so probably no point in having a serious go at the quaddie today. Best we can suggest is to anchor the best of the favourites the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE in the first leg and just sit back and hope for some crazy upsets in the later races. Crazy quaddie above.
Feature Race Preview: Race 8: CAULFIELD GUINEAS
For the Caulfield Guineas, we invariably get a strongly run race which suits the horse who runs out the mile the strongest. Not that big a field this year though and not sure the speed is that strong. Likely leader is the 6-WANARUAH with stable mate 5-MAYFAIR and be interesting to see how much they pressure each other, with the 8-FEROCE sitting in behind them and 2-RUE DE ROYALE sitting handy. The 3-EVAPORATE should get a pretty good sit next in line. Racing pattern will be critical here, be cautious if we get an on-pace track on firm ground.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-BROADSIDING is the short-priced favourite and Sydney boom horse and to be honest these types usually win this race when they appear. Proven over 1600M (unlike many of these), proven on firm ground, will probably drop back here so the speed in this race and the racing pattern are going to be important. Interesting to note that no horse has won the Caulfield Guineas off only one run in, in the last 30 years, but that may be a misleading statistic as not clear as to how many runners there has even been in that criteria over that time. But he is coming into this off only one start, first time Melbourne way of going and first time at Caulfield in a small field where they might not go that quickly. Showed class to win first-up. Should definitely be favourite here, but not convinced he is unbeatable.
2-RUE DE ROYALE has shown some ability but only broke his maiden status two starts back at Bendigo. Got perfect run but was well covered in the Bill Stutt Stakes at MV last start. Didn’t get clear till late in the Sires Produce and hit the line well there. Likely to settle handy here but hard to see him being competitive based on last start run. No
3-EVAPORATE has had a pretty long preparation already, going into the race at start number 9 and having already had 5 runs in this time is pretty unusual. Won the last three in a row at MV and has been really strong at the end of his races each time, sometimes making long wide runs at them and still holding on strongly on the line. Can push forward here in a race of little speed and should be able to get the run of the race. Looks over the odds considering his form, and big plus that he definitely runs a strong mile. There is that niggling doubt though that that he may be a MV horse and would have been more confident if we had seen him win at another metro track, but he does represent a different form line to most of these. Definite chance.
4-ANGEL CAPITAL is undefeated this time in and looks a winning type, he has shown a decent turn of foot to win both starts this time in. Was travelling behind them here in the Guineas Prelude and looking for runs, eventually darted through to the inside to score, but thought he may have pulled away from them and he really didn’t. Small field and a good barrier would be good to see this one ridden more forward today. There isn’t much depth to this field and he is a winner so has to go in as a chance, again the strong 1600M is going to be the question mark. Chance.
5-MAYFAIR is a front running Waterhouse horse so should be respected. He has really fought out the last two starts strongly, headed both times but not beaten far at all and not really losing ground on the line. Likely to lead or sit handy here vs the stable mate the (6). He is another first time Melbourne way of going and didn’t come to Caulfield to work during the week and decided to stay at Flemington. If track pattern favours those on-speed he is definitely worth consideration. Chance.
6-WANARUAH looks primed for this race off two good runs this time in. Excellent first preparation and then beaten by a class one first up in Sydney when he did lengthen and show a kick. Took the lead here in the Guineas Prelude and the racing pattern did favour those running on that day, he didn’t really extend but they did struggle to get past him in the straight and even though he looked like he was well covered he wasn’t beaten very far. Should run a strong 1600M, should have plenty of improvement to come, and likely to lead here on a track that may favour those on-speed. Good chance.
7-PUBLIC ATTENTION has only had the 3 career starts so would be trying to become the most lightly raced horse to win the Caulfield Guineas in the last 30 years. Effectively in his first preparation too. Looked great swooping to win at first career start here, then disappointing with excuses at MV and right in the blanket finish here in the Guineas Prelude. Was caught wide and exposed that day but again the question will be a strong feature Group 1 1600M at this stage of his career. Prefer place.
8-FEROCE was in everyone’s black book when he was held up on the rails here first-up and didn’t even get remotely warm. Interesting that he still started $26 here in the Guineas Prelude when would have thought he would be well in the market. Jumped and sat handy that day and had every chance, but wasn’t beaten far at all in a bunched finish and like that he fought out the race for the whole straight when they were swamping him. Track was favouring runners on that day too, so effort is even better than form guide suggests. Likely leader here which may be the racing pattern and drawn to jump and lead. Betting market is assuming that all those finishing over the top of him last start will have his measure, but he wasn’t beaten far last time, should have plenty of improvement to come and may strike an on-speed track. Looks well over the odds on that basis and best roughie in this field. Rough.
9-TROPICUS is another Sydney visitor coming off the Golden Rose, but was well held by others going around in his last start. Drawn inside and likely to drop well back here. His form is probably better than it looks, he tends to drop back and do a few things wrong, if he pulled it all together he would probably run a lot better than expected here. Rough place only.
10-VIANARRA is a 10 start maiden into a Group 1, but form holds up through winner from two starts back. Fitter for three runs in, and stuck on OK last start but was well beaten, the others got a break on him there. Been well held against these previously and likely to be giving them a start and unlikely to be a factor in this.
11-PRIVATE LIFE was in the bunched finish in the Caulfield Guineas where there wasn’t much between them at all, so we need to try and line up who will have the most improvement. Sat off them there and ran into the race as the widest runner, but that was the best ground that day and he had every chance. Can race handy here from a good barrier, question is if the run last start showed he would run out a strong 1600M and not sure it did? Risking.
Summary:
Think this race is a lot more open than the market is suggesting and whilst if the favourite brings his best form he almost certainly wins, there are a few open unknowns that could bring him undone. Golden Rose has been the best form for this race in recent times and there really wasn’t that much between the 5-MAYFAIR and the 1-BROADSIDING last start, and around Caulfield on a firm track possibly favouring those on-speed would probably prefer to be on the (5), he looks better suited here than his rival. Always pays to follow the best run from the Caulfield Guineas, but to be honest hard to pick which one that was this year in a bunched field, we would go with the 6-WANARUAH or even the 8-FEROCE, but the bunched field may throw a question over that form. And then we have the totally different form line with the 3-EVAPORATE and think that has to be respected, he has had to make early, wide and strong runs in some of his MV wins and they may be better than they look in the form guide.
We are actually going to put the 3-EVAPORATE on top here, he has been doing nothing wrong this campaign and think they can settle just off the speed here from a good barrier and get the run of the race. Wary of the Sydney form, in particular the 5-MAYFAIR might prove hard to run down on-speed and the class of the 1-BROADSIDING who may just end up too good for them regardless. Best roughie for exotics is the 8-FEROCE and there are some nice exotics here if the short-priced favourite doesn’t win. Punting strategy is each-way on the top pick and some exotics around these.
Feature Race Preview: Race 10: TOORAK HANDICAP
For the Toorak Handicap there is only 3.5 kgs top to bottom and these races are so much more fun when there is a big weight spread. Not sure there is much speed here, either the 11-MAGNASPIN or 13-WISHLOR LASS goes forward and if the track pattern is favouring those on-speed good chance these will be in the finish at odds. Suspect they will ride the 4-ANOTHER WIL more forward here to make sure he gets every chance and 3-ANTINO settles handy if he jumps cleanly.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-DESERT LIGHTNING is a smart NZer who came over for the All Star Mile and stuck around for spring. Good with weight first-up at MV over an unsuitable distance and then box seated and pinched a break on his main rival last start to win at Sandown. Stretched his neck out to the line there but the (9) was still making good ground on him. Excellent 1600M stats and should still have a lot of improvement to come. Probably settles closer to the speed than his main rivals here. Just having to give weight to a few here probably looks an ask and prefer a place.
2-PERICLES SCRATCHED
3-ANTINO has been chasing around behind the best horses in the country at WFA and he is much better suited here back to a handicap. Dry track probably suits better too. Has a habit of being slowly away, but smallish field and middle barrier hopefully even that out if he does that, it won’t be that much of an issue. He has chased well last few starts and ready to win at this level. Clean jump and settling handy would make all the difference here. Chance.
4-ANOTHER WIL has had a spruik on him for some time and its well justified and he looks well on the track to living up to it too. Only beaten once and that was on a heavy track in a Doncaster Hcp. Launched last 50M here to win first-up and then almost paid a visit to check out the inner track here last start but still recovered and won. Barrier 1 and be interesting to see how forward they go today, he has been ridden forward before and don’t think they will want to risk being unlucky. Seems the real deal and the one to beat.
5-LIGHT INFANTRY MAN is an import into his third Australian preparation and has yet to show anything close to interesting form. Still went around a $6 chance here last start, but really can’t back this one till he genuinely gets into a finish somewhere. No
6-ORCHESTRAL was the boom 3YO NZ staying filly who won at short odds at her first Australian start back in the Autumn and was then beaten in the ATC Oaks the start after. Always a challenge whether these ones go on in their 4YO season, but she was better than most. Beaten 1st up and now coming across to a Group 1 mile may be a challenge, but she is one who could surprise and beat all these as she has a bit of X factor about her. But really hard to judge what she is going to do, so also tough to back with any confidence. Wild card.
7-ALSEPHINA is a WA mare with an impressive win strike rate who looks to be going places this spring. Eye catching ploughing through the muck at Flemington late in a race where the leader pinched it and then was absolutely travelling on the turn at MV and just needed the gap to come, and she really extended through to the line there. Excellent 1600M stats, in winning form, dry track no issue and seems to be one on the improve and looks to have a nice turn of foot. Right in this as a strong chance.
8-BANK MAUR is a straight out non-winner who keeps showing glimpse of form, but they are only glimpses at best. Showed a really good kick here first-up when only just run down late and can forgive the Flemington heavy track run, but then really didn’t do much at Sandown last start when he had every chance. Hard to see him turning the tables here on the ones that beat him home last start. No
9-CRAIG is another with a boom on him and he has an explosive turn of foot but often ends up too far back in the field and sets himself a huge task. Which is exactly what happened last time at Sandown. Class win here first-up when he had the race won a long way out. There doesn’t seem to be that much speed in this race and that leaves him out the back and giving most of his main rivals a big head start off a moderate tempo and that seems to be a real issue here. Can’t see him anywhere else but back of the field here from barrier 12. Would probably want a strong run on race pattern too. He has the talent to win this, but not sure he is going to get things to suit here. Rough only.
10-JIMMY THE BEAR is a tough honest 1400M to 1600M horse who seems to struggle at this level these days. Likes Caulfield. He hasn’t had the best of luck or the best rides a few times recently, got squashed trying to go for a run in the Lawrence Stakes, got far too far back in the Heatherlie and ran on well late and a bit slow away here last time and just ground home. Could go forward and settle on-speed if he jumps OK and if he does that he is a rough place chance as he is honest and always tries. Rough place.
11-MAGNASPIN surprised with a forward showing at long odds first-up at Sandown and is looking to be the first Toorak Handicap winner to come through the Narrandera Cup. He is a good on-speed horse and if he doesn’t get troubled (and he may not get much pressure here) can be hard to run down. Inside draw and likely leader here and if the track is favouring those on-speed would put him in for a place in trifectas and first fours as suspect he is probably going to run a race here at odds. Rough place.
12-OSIPENKO is a Sydney sider who has some ability but does tend to drop back and need luck in his runs. Fitter for the two runs in and was making good ground late last start. Placed in a Makybe Diva down here last spring. Worried about the inside barrier here dropping back in a race where there may not be much speed and he might need luck. Prefer place.
13-WISHLOR LASS normally keeps her form when she finds it and raced through the mares feature races Spring 2023. Tough rolling on-speed and she can be extremely hard to get past when she gets the right rhythm. She battled it out to the line here last start. Likely to get things to suit here, can go forward, control the speed and if she is back to her best or the track is favouring those on-speed she might be hard to run down. Rough chance.
Summary:
Interesting race, but probably nothing like the classic Toorak Handicaps of old. The 4-ANOTHER WIL is definitely the one to beat, and if they go forward off a moderate tempo will be extremely hard to beat. But going a bit left of centre for the main danger, really like the way the mare the 7-ALSEPHINA is building this spring and suspect she is going to run a race here. The 3-ANTINO the obvious pick for third. Best roughies are the 13-WISHLOR LASS and 11-MAGNASPIN and probably will take wide trifectas on the top two picks and wider the place with these.
Race 1: 11-EXTREME VIRTURE, 13-PLATINUM DESTROYER, 8-SABAN
Race 2: 1-ERNO’S CUBE, 5-SYMPHONY OF COLOUR, 4-KUROYANAGI
Race 3: 6-A LITTLE DEEP, 11-SHAIME, 9-EXTRATWO
Race 4: 3-SEE YOU IN HEAVEN, 7-LADY JONES, 5-MARACANA
Race 5: 16-SUPERAZI, 14-RUN HARRY RUN, 6-COASTWATCH
Race 6: 14-COMMANDO DRIFT, 10-DASHING DUCHESS, 9-HERMAN HESSE
Race 7: 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE, 6-DENY KNOWLEDGE, 2-VOW AND DECLARE
Race 8: 3-EVAPORATE, 5-MAYFAIR, 1-BROADSIDING
Race 9: 9-BELLATRIX STAR, 4-KALLOS, 1-OSCAR’S FORTUNE
Race 10: 4-ANOTHER WIL, 7-ALSEPHINA, 3-ANTINO
