We have a considerable rain event hitting Melbourne Thursday and Friday and just a few showers around Saturday, but also possibly a fair bit of wind. Rained pretty much all day Friday and this track should come up seriously rain affected and a genuine wet track in tough conditions. Twice in the last three years we have had a HEAVY(8) improving to a SOFT(6) on race day but they were warm sunny days and suspect this year was more rain and can’t see it getting out of the HEAVY range even with clearing weather on race day. We should see them coming off the rails in the straight giving runners on out wide their chances. Assume we are looking for wet trackers in the form and keep a close eye on the racing conditions. Caulfield Cup Day is always smaller fields and not as much punting value, but suspect we will still get a few surprises in the results under the conditions and we have tried to squeeze a few out of the ordinary types into the selections.
For Spring Campaign 2024 we will be posting tips around 10am on Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 3: 2-RED ACES $5 WIN
EARLY QUAD: Races 3,4,5,6 : 2 / 1,6,7,10 / 8,10,11 / 1,3,5,7,11,12 x $5 = 6.9%
The Caulfield Classic / Norman Robinson is always a good race for a confident bet with most of these been racing against each other in lead-up runs so they are easy to line up. There isn’t that much between this field and they all have some chance, but this one seems to have the most improvement to come. Only the two runs in, did nothing first-up but then chased hard behind the (1) at Flemington and think he probably beats that one home today with fitness improvement. Proven over 1800M and looking for further today, and proven in wet ground unlike most of his rivals and that makes him a pretty appealing betting proposition today. Straight out at around $4.50. Seeing we don’t have many bets early in the day lets see if we can land the Early Quad anchoring the best bet and hoping for a roughie in the last leg.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 4-ASHFORD STREET $4 EW
Grand old honest campaigner and he loves these conditions, and he loves a tough slog on a wet track. Distance stats are excellent, goes well at Caulfield and looked the winner by a mile here last start when just nabbed late by one that flew late and has won since and looks extremely smart. Few form and wet track queries in this race with this opposition, and suspect if this was a more lightly raced horse with this sort of form he would be half the odds in this field. Each way at around $11.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 13-ZARDOZI $4 EW
This one looks perfectly suited in the Caulfield Cup, 4YO lightly weighted mare with strong classic staying form as a 3YO, handles wet tracks, in form this time in only just got beaten last start in Sydney and drawn to run on strongly down the middle of the track which may be the racing pattern. She is probably the only horse in the field without a wet track or distance or racing pattern query on them. Can’t fault her. Looks a nice each-way bet at around $7 and suspect she is going to get extremely well back coming to race time and will probably go close to starting favourite.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 9-COASTWATCH $4 EW, QUINELLA 1,6,9,13 boxed x $3 = 100%
Talented Sydney sider who handles wet tracks and both runs in this time has been good and looks to be ready to win now. Raced well here last Saturday when just slightly held up runs along the inside and hit the line well. Should lob just behind the speed here and get the split through in the straight and be in the finish at around $10. Value quinella with the 13-AEGON who does mix his form, but loves wet ground and has put in some excellent runs over the Caulfield 1400M at WFA, the favourite the 1-PINSTRIPED and be wary of the other roughie here the 6-PHEARSON who likes to roll along on-speed on wet ground and will get conditions to suit today.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 7-IN HER EYES $2 EW
This one has a lot more ability than her form suggests, she contested both the Blue Diamond and the Champagne Stakes at Group 1 as a 2YO, but she has run some nice races when given the chance in weaker grades. Did nothing first-up, but has won a jump out since. Taking on spec a bit but she may run on late here on wet ground and she is just a bit of an unknown as to how good she is as she doesn’t often run in suitable races. Little dabble at around $60.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 13-ANAHITA $2 EW
Good field of class mares going around and there probably isn’t that much between some of these from the Flemington race last start where she was strong to the line. She ran a great race at odds here two starts back to almost upset the favourite and she can go forward here from a good barrier and give herself every chance. Thing to watch out for here is her wet track form – she absolutely loves it. Form guide says she is 2 wins from 3 starts on the heavy, but that’s counting the June 2023 Sandown race where she won well and was later disqualified – so she is actually 3/3 and unbeaten on heavy tracks. Great roughie here at around $14 and she should be in the finish here so a good place bet for multis at least.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 8-REY MAGNERIO at around $3.50
This pains us as we are quite a fan of this horse, he has a fair bit of ability and will probably win a quality sprint one day. But this just doesn’t look the right race for him, strong finisher dropping back in distance to the 1000M and striking a wet track for the first time which may be a query. May be good enough regardless, but just looks poor value in an unsuitable race.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into even more couches for Caulfield.
CAULFIELD CUP TRIFECTA: Race 9: 2,13 / 2,5,10,13,19 / 2,3,5,7,10,13,19 x $5 = 12.5%
Always worth a crack at the Caulfield Cup trifecta and happy to narrow it just down to the two main chances to win in the 13-ZARDOZI, 2-BUCKAROO and then try and steal a value dividend if a mega roughie like the 5-HUETOR or the emergency 19-FANCY MAN can get into the finish to blow out the dividend for us.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 2,4,6,7 / 2,4,9,13 / 2,13 / 1,6,8,9,13 x $20 = 12.5%
Not sure the quaddie will pay that well today, happy to go narrow in the Caulfield Cup on the two main chances as its either those two or adding in another 5-6 and last leg is probably the best chance for a value winner.
Feature Race Preview: Race 9: CAULFIELD CUP
For the Caulfield Cup we have a moderate field, the usual mix of WFA horses coming through the Turnbull and the Caulfield Stakes and the Metropolitan form from Sydney. Without a top line international horse the traditional form lines are the way to go, first three home in the Turnbull Stakes and those with winning form this time in. Really important to be winning or right in the finish of the lead-up runs rather than just running promising 5ths and 6ths, horses need to be right at their top to win these races.
Assuming we are going to be racing on a genuinely wet track and they will be winning coming off the rails by Race 9 on the day, and the inside going may not be the best ground (though there will be plenty of rooms for runs there). Speed here will be the 15-DENY KNOWLEDGE running to a clear lead with jockey Newitt on board, the 7-ELIYASS coming across from a wide barrier and the
10-DUKE DE SESSA, and the 9-YOUNG WERTHER and 17-POSITIVITY (SCRATCHED) getting pretty good runs just behind the speed here. There doesn’t look to be a lot of pressure outside these, and a lot depends on if they really try and run them along and break the field up on the leader.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-KALAPOUR is “top weight” at 55kgs here. Won the Archer last spring and then struggled in the Melbourne Cup a few days later. Just three starts later in the next preparation scored a Group 1 Tancred at long odds (punters messed up there) and was good in the Sydney Cup, so totally up to this level. Has actually been consistently in the finish of feature staying races the last few years and this probably isn’t that much stronger than those. Was solid here last weekend holding ground to the line and he is one who doesn’t perform till he gets into the right race over the right distance. Will drop back along inside here, but this field is likely to come off the rails in the straight and the runs will be there if he is good enough. Main issue is that he probably wants a firm track, the wetter it is the more of an issue it is for him. Does seem over the odds at $100 though and likely to run a lot better than that. Rough place.
2-BUCKAROO ticks a lot of boxes for a Caulfield Cup, winning form this time in, coming off a Turnbull Stakes placing and dropping 3.5kgs in weight and has been winning at WFA this time in so really you can’t get better Caulfield Cup lead in form than that. Seems to have really turned it around this preparation after being gelded. Handled the genuine wet track in the Turnbull just fine and there is a lot of talk about him not having won past 1800M, but often you genuinely don’t need a strong 2400 stayer to win this race. Biggest challenge would be a genuine tough staying slog on a wet track and slightly concerned he came from behind the winner last start, went past her and then was still beaten on the line. Drawn well, has the turn of foot to go for home on the turn which is important in this race and might have a class edge on these. Strong chance.
3-CIRCLE OF FIRE is an international import who had a break out first preparation in Australia (and many of these do not), and put in some really strong staying performances. Handles a really wet track just fine. Two runs in have been even enough, and you get the feeling he still being set for the Melbourne Cup and still won’t be at his best today. Likely to drop back and grind home OK and finish nearer to the front but suspect he will also need this run as well.
4-WARP SPEED is the Japanese challenger with the funky colours and the Japanese runners have had an excellent record in this race when they have come out. There doesn’t seem to be much interest in the betting market for this one though, he hasn’t raced for 5 months and his best form is over 3000M. Barrier 19 and this is a very tricky ride for an overseas rider not familiar with Caulfield, because normally you want to go forward when drawn wide in the Caulfield Cup, but suspect he will end up well back. Genuine wet track has to be a query too. Passing.
5-HUETOR is a tough QLD 2000M horse who contests most of these feature races and pops up now and then. Well drawn and loves a heavy track and may get conditions to suit. Was really good chasing home here 1st up and ran past the rest of the pack except the winner. Likely to drop back here, but looks ready to do something third-up and probably a good value roughie for exotics as a rough place chance, but unlikely to win. Given his wet track form he is only you probably want to put in the wider exotics.
6-WARMONGER is more lightly raced with more upside than many of these and 4YOs on the rise can often win this race. Took a while to find best form in the winter, but last two Derby starts were extraordinary and tagged himself as a stayer of the future, so there has been a lot of interest in him this spring. He stuck on really well first-up and then was a little disappointing in the Turnbull against many of these. Drawn wide and likely to drop well back here (listen for riding tactics), but just can’t see them trying to press forward. Likely to be finishing on well and flagging himself as a horse to follow this spring but just suspect this isn’t the right race for him, 2400M around Caulfield on a wet track, unless he can make a long hard run at them down the middle of the track from well back.
7-ELIYASS is an international import who has had four starts in Australia for 3 wins and a third and that is way better than so many of them do. Really fool-proof horse who jumps and goes forward and makes his own luck. Right in the finish in the Turnbull when it was a tough day for leaders to win, but slightly concerned he struggled to get past the (10) in that race as well. Don’t be put off by the barrier, plenty of on-speed horses have run great Caulfield Cup races pushing forward from outside barriers, but jockey needs to be brave and commit to going forward. In a sprint for home Caulfield Cup on a dry track he would be right in this race, in a tough slog 2400M on a wet track maybe not. He may be the one having to bring the field up to the leader. Still a strong chance as has the right form.
8-LAND LEGEND is an overseas import who has bought his form over, and worked his way through the distances nicely with last start Metropolitan win. Was a strong staying performance last start, went wide and early for home with the (13) and they drew away and fought the race out. He can still do a few things wrong in his races, and note in the St Leger win he was actually out the back of the field and over racing and made a mid-race move to go around the field to the lead. Barrier 1 might be an issue here, first time Melbourne way of going, likely to be slowly out and behind a lot of slow horse and he looks like he prefers to make long sweeping runs in clear running. They will probably come off the rails and open up for inside runs for him. Racing well enough, is probably going to take a really aware ride here and will need a few breaks to come his way. Chance.
9-YOUNG WERTHER seems to have been around forever, and has had a crack at the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup previously and probably prefers it a bit easier than the spring features. He has seemed to find more consistent form the last few preparations, was previously very much a dry track and Flemington horse. Tough win here two starts back and placed 3/4 starts at the 2400M. Looked like he was going to run into the race in the Turnbull, but suspect the wet track stopped him there. And that’s the issue, he is a major concern on a wet track (in fact he may even be scratched on a seriously wet track). Drawn well and likely to go forward and get a perfect run here. Put in in as a place chance on a dry track, but suspect a wet track brings him undone here.
10-DUKE DE SESSA is a super frustrating horse who doesn’t go badly enough to drop off, but doesn’t go well enough to earn a collect. Yet to win in 12 Australian starts now, but is usually thereabouts. The (9) beat him here a few starts back when he had race fitness advantage over that one, and he has been thereabouts, but safely held in both the Underwood and the Turnbull. Likely goes forward from a good barrier here and the (7) did struggle to get past him last start. Likely to be winning down the middle of the track come this race though and just can’t work out where he fits in. Did run in this race last year without making much of an impact. Probably want to put him in wide trifectas as a place chance as he is just the type of horse to burn you if you leave him out. Place best.
11-KNIGHT’S CHOICE looked to be a promising stayer with a few good runs at long odds over the QLD winter, but he has yet to show anything this spring. Only the two runs in and can expect improvement and he does drop down to a nice light weight here, but hard to see him improving quickly enough to be a factor here. No
12-MURAMASA showed a lot of staying promise last spring winning three races in a row including the Queen Elizabeth (and impressively). Great run first-up at MV and then in the finish at Sandown, but those were much weaker races than most of these have been contesting. Hit the lead about 100M out last start and then swooped late by two in-form ones. A strange preparation for a Caulfield Cup, but he does get a very nice 9kgs weight drop into this field. Can race forward and make use of this barrier. Probably would prefer a dry track, in fact stable have said they are likely to scratch on a wet track and wait for Geelong Cup. Bit wary of this one, on first glance you would say No, but he has the talent and will get one of the best runs in the race, just he has had an under the radar preparation. Rough, but looks an unlikely starter at the moment. SCRATCHED
13-ZARDOZI is the lightly weighted 4YO classic staying mare and these ones are famous for having a good record in this race. Showed staying class to win the VRC Oaks, and right in the finishes in Sydney autumn races. Like that she has had four runs in to set her for this race, she did strike a leaders track second up which didn’t suit her racing pattern, but fought out the finish strongly in the Metropolitan. Handles it wet, in fact she is probably better on wet ground. Winning form, wet track form, lightly weighted 4YO mare are all very big ticks, then we have an international jockey on board who has never ridden at Caulfield? This race is going to be run to suit though, swooping out wide down the middle of the track on a deteriorating track and she looks the one to beat here. Top chance.
14-COCO SUN is another lightly weighted 4YO staying mare who zoomed through the Adelaide carnival. Three runs back in this preparation have all been OK, but nothing spectacular, and we are firmly of the opinion you need to be in genuine winning form and fighting out the finish of lead in races to win these feature Group 1s, not just running black book 5ths and 6ths. Well held by many going around here in her lead in runs and tricky ride for the jockey from barrier 20 for a horse that normally races handy. Even though it looks like she handles wet track those runs were her first two starts. Not on form.
15-DENY KNOWLEDGE got the perfect race shape here last week, leading and dictating on a dry track that favoured those on-speed. With jockey Newitt on board there is no question where she will be here, running along out to a clear lead. Don’t worry about the outside barrier she should be able to get across without too much work. Even though she has the 2350M win to her name definitely think she is better at 2000M and she can over-race and stop quickly so getting the 2400M needs her to settle and for everything to go right. She does seem to be racing more consistently as she gets older, but wet track would be a query on her form. Unless we get a dry track and an on-speed pattern find her hard to consider. Having multiple vet checks leading into the race is a major red flag too if she does send up starting.
16-VALIANT KING is an import who ran in this race last year when well in the market and wasn’t disgraced. Only had the two runs since then, and both times there has been no market interest which is normally a good guide with these ones. Likely to drop well back from an outside barrier. No
17-POSITIVITY has been racing extremely well this spring coming off a good 3YO staying preparation. First two runs this time in were excellent, lobbing on-speed and giving herself every chance but they were bunched finishes. Note drew outside barrier last start and dropped back to last, made wide run and stuck on well on a wet track. Not normal racing pattern. Main question mark here is the wet track, but considering she was ridden against her normal racing pattern last start not sure we can say she doesn’t handle it. Lots to like about this one. Drawn well, can race handy and get the run of the race, winning form this time in and light weight female jockey trying to become the first female to win a Caulfield Cup. Definitely the best roughie here and well over the odds at $40. Strong rough chance. SCRATCHED
18-SAYEDATY SADATY is an UK import having his first Australian start and a total unknown. Been transferred to local Australian stable so they should have a feel for how he lines up and the market will be the best guide, so watch for market moves. No weight, and inside barrier and you would think they would go forward here, but who knows? Can’t back with any confidence, but can’t exclude either as not the strongest opposition here. Consider the tough conditions, query over some of his opposition and an imported stayer with no weight not surprised he is well in the market, this is a very winnable race for an import with any form.
19-FANCY MAN (emerg) is the first emergency and looks to be building to something this spring. Has ran on well last two starts and should have plenty of improvement to come. Well drawn and wet track should be OK. Question is how good is he, his form is pretty well exposed by now. Not impossible that he gets a run if we get a wet track or a vet check resulting in a scratching. Rough place chance if he gets into the field.
20-BERKSHIRE BREEZE (emerg) has been racing well in distance events over winter but interesting they have all been at Flemington and 2500M, suggesting he wants a big track and even further. Handles it wet but better on firm ground and likely to go forward from a wide barrier. Not sure how strong the winter staying events were he contested and prefer to see here, though not impossible he could place just rolling along on the speed with race fitness.
21-FRANCESCO GUARDI (emerg) ran in this race last year and made little impression. Form this time in is similar, running on well without being competitive and in the finish. Last win was a MV Cup on a heavy track, but was going much better that preparation. Hard to have. SCRATCHED
Summary:
Actually don’t think there are that many winning chances here at all. The 13-ZARDOZI goes on top, looks to get the perfect run on, out wide on a wet track set up and all conditions to suit, 4YO mare with no weight, classic staying form and her last start was good enough to win this. The 2-BUCKAROO comes into this with the best form this spring, and that may still overcome any queries about a wet track or the 2400M. We were super keen on the 17-POSITIVITY to run a race at value but she has been scratched, and the other one we were keen on the 12-MURAMASA looks unlikely to start on a wet track so that doesn’t leave us with much in the rest of the field. Which means we are kinda stuck and left with 10-DUKE DE SESSA for third placing, which is about as weak a push for a horse as you can get.
Not really interested in that much outside these, respect for the 7-ELIYASS as winning chance and the best two roughies are the 5-HUETOR and the emergency the 19-FANCY MAN now that he is in the field. Keen to have a bet here as looks to be plenty of value, something straight out on the top pick and a wide trifecta with the top two picks to win.
Race 1: 11-TAKEN, 1-SUGAR COAT, 3-BARBARIC LAD
Race 2: 6-RESERVE BANK, 7-GALLANT SON, 10-LOVELYCUT
Race 3: 2-RED ACES, 8-KINGOFWALLSTREET, 5-SCARY
Race 4: 1-TOO DARN DISCREET, 6-INEVITABLE TRUTH, 7-ALL KINDS OF FOLK
Race 5: 11-PONDALOWIE 8-ISTHMUS, 10-NIANCE
Race 6: 3-GEEGESS MISTRUTH, 5-MATISSE, 7-IN HER EYES
Race 7: 4-ASHFORD STREET, 2-SPACEWALK, 6-SANS DOUTE
Race 8: 9-MISS ARIA, 4-SKYBIRD, 13-ANAHITA
Race 9: 13-ZARDOZI, 2-BUCKAROO, 10-DUKE DE SESSA
Race 10: 9-COASTWATCH, 13-AEGON, 1-PINSTRIPED
