Tips, suggested bets and feature race preview for Moonee Valley Carlyon Stakes 24/08/2024.
Let’s leave the politics of racing administration behind and head out for a day on the punt which is what racing is supposed to be about. Rain coming through Friday, but pretty clear Saturday with a bit of drying wind, so whatever track rating we end up with should stay for the day. Assuming a genuine SOFT(5) for the form so those wanting drier tracks should get their chance. Rail OUT 5M means almost certainly going to be a leaders and on-speed track and be ready to do the form and punt accordingly.
For Spring Campaign 2024 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 7: 2-HOLYMANZ $6 WIN
Some decent talent in a small field here, but this is going to be a very tactical race and just get the feeling the favourite the 9-SEA WHAT I SEE may be vulnerable here, first-up and with a promising spring ahead so probably not really primed. This one was excellent last start in better company, and the form has stacked up from that race, was held up badly for clear runs down the straight and finished on strongly once clear. Drier track suits today. In a tactical race, think he sits just off them and pounces late at around $4 and happy to back straight out.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 8-BRILLIANT VENTURE $5 EW
Tough old stayer who is probably a bit under-rated and he is very hard to run down when he goes to lead and runs away from them. Last start here was excellent, the first two home dashed away from the rest of the field and they probably should have bought each other undone, but they didn’t and both stuck on well. Does meet the favourite the (4) 2 kgs worse off from that run, however, think they just go straight to lead here, first race, on a likely leaders track so take the $13 and you are going to get a pretty good run for your money.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 5-ALL WOKE $5 EW
Always hard to line up the new seasons 3YOs but like the way this one was racing over in Adelaide in her first preparation and was still doing a few things wrong. Given a few jump outs to get ready for this, and think she will improve this spring with some experience and like that she is drawn out as looks like she need to roll into the race in clear running room. Each way at around $11.
QUINELLA: Race 9: 8,11,12 boxed x $6 = 100%
Very ppen last race so plenty of value in the quinella. The 8-EXTRATWO ran on really well here last start first run from a break and looks the one to beat, the 12-ALONG THE RIVER looks the value with not much luck on the rails last start and the 11-PIONEER RIVER needs a track on the drier side and rolls to the lead and is just about always in the finish.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 14-COMMANDER HARRY $3 EW, QUINELLA 6,11,13 boxed x $3 = 100%
We were on this one here at odds last start, perfect jump to go forward from outside barrier, contested the lead and just went for home a little early trying to drop them before the turn. Inside was off that day so he faded late to run fourth. Jockey Gaudray stays on and unlikely to be as much pressure in the lead today so you would think a repeat of that ride on a track favouring those on-speed would just about win this at around $16. Great value rough chance and box up a quinella with the in-form 11-STAR VEGA and the 6-LAUDING who loves MV and should be ready to do something third run in from a spell.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 15-RICK’S CAFÉ $2 EW
Talented middle distance mare on her day and looks ready to do something here third-up. Ran on well late along the rails (best ground) last start. Best with some give in the ground and suited up in distance again. Can drop back in the field, so will need them to be running on OK, but speed in this race looks OK and hoping jockey Hefel is more positive today and goes forward to sit just behind the leaders. Rough chance at around $31.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 7-LINCOLN ROCKS at around $3
Promising middle distance horse on the way up, but he was suited by the fast speed and run on pattern here last start and not sure the likely leader’s track and slower speed here today will suit. Always risky taking on something off a good win, but let’s wait and see how the racing pattern comes up.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a MV apartment.
EARLY QUAD: Races 2,3,4,5 : 4,5,6 / 1,5 / 2,5 / 6,11,13,14 x $5 = 10.41%
Let’s try a simple Early Quaddie around the selections with a few roughies in there along the way.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,5,7,8,15 / 2 / 5,6,7,9 / 4,5,7,8,11,12 x $20 = 16.66%
Let’s be bold today on a day when the Quaddie probably doesn’t pay that much and take the Race 7: 2-HOLYMANZ one out in the Quaddie and try and hit a decent percentage. Load up the first and last legs where there is a good chance of a value result.
Feature Race Preview:
Feature race of the day is the Listed Carlyon Stakes with a fairly even bunch of sprinters at set weights and be wary of the 3YO with no weight at the bottom of the scale. Leader here is the 2-ACROMANTULA with the 3YO with no weight the 9-BOLD BASTILLE likely to burn across to challenge and the 8-SCUDERIA and 6-SHIRSHOV settling in behind them on the rail and the 5-MORNINGTON GLORY stalking behind the speed like he did last start.
Runner by Runner comments:
2-ACROMANTULA is a 1000M specialist from WA who won this race last year on a firm track. That was coming off a better lead-in run though and he does seem to prefer a firmer track, so track conditions will be the key with this one. Likely leader and if leaders are winning he is probably over the odds here, he was in the worse ground last time on a SOFT(6) but does he get a better track here? Rough only.
3-GOLDEN BOOM is a QLD visitor having first start Melbourne way of going over the tight MV 1000M and drawn inside, so suspect if he doesn’t lead here he may find trouble. Competitive over further than 1000M, unlike many of these so will probably be ridden with a sit behind them and will need the gap to open up. Stable normally know what they are doing when they come to Melbourne so watch market on this one. Handles it wet.
4-ASHFORD STREET is a grand old campaigner who is continually under rated and has an excellent 1000M and MV record. He actually hasn’t been racing in his best form last few starts, definitely prefers some give in the ground and would put him in this mix if this track comes up on the worse side of soft. He likes a hard tough slog in hard tough conditions, but always worth a rough chance when he gets out to odds. Rough only.
5-MORNINGTON GLORY was extremely disappointing first-up and pretty obvious now that he simply doesn’t like it wet. He had the race won a long way out here last start, jog trotting on the turn and ready to unleash. He will sit off the speed here again, so some risk if the track ends up favouring those on-speed. Major issue is going to be how this track comes up, better side of soft he is probably fine, worse side of soft probably some query and you would think worse than that and they scratch him. Really hard to tell to race day with this one. Chance with reservations.
6-SHIRSHOV is a speedy type who probably prefers the 955M to the 1000M. Had a few jump outs and should be pretty forward for this and may jump and run here. Handles all going and probably has more upside than a few of these. Looks over the odds in a pretty even field. Strong rough chance.
7-SANS DOUTE pulled out some astonishing wins last preparation coming from well back and may be a class horse on the rise. Perfectly suited here dropping back and swooping them, question is going to be how the track plays and if they can run on. Even if the track was playing on-speed they might go fast enough here for him to run over the top of them. Strong chance.
8-SCUDERIA loves MV and the 1000M, but probably does prefer the track on the firmer side, which she is unlikely to get and was outclassed here last time. Likes to lead and think they cross her here and she will be pressured on the rail. Not keen today.
9-BOLD BASTILLE is speedy 3YO filly having her first race of the new season. Showed a lot of speed and dash last time and she knows only one way – to go out fast and keep going. Never struck a wet track but if the track favours leaders and she jumps and crosses then she probably wins this. Didn’t beat much in last few runs so hard to know how strong those wins are. Huge weight pull over these and good enough to win this. Strong chance
Summary:
We have a lot of good, reliable 1000M sprinters here, but two who are in another league to this in the 9-BOLD BASTILLE and the 7-SANS DOUTE and they are probably the ones to follow here. Track condition and racing pattern are going to have a major impact here, but assume we are going to be following leaders today so 9-BOLD BASTILLE should be able to jump and run and tear away from them as long as she can handle the wet track, with the 7-SANS DOUTE running on strongly late. Value in the race seems to be the 6-SHIRSHOV who should handle the wet track and the others are either queries on form or in the wet. Elevate 5-MORNINGTON GLORY if the track comes up firm enough and they can win down the middle of the track. Hard to determine punting approach till we see the racing pattern.
Race 1: 8-BRILLIANT VENTURE, 4-DASHING DUCHESS, 2-WYCLIFF
Race 2: 4-LAST DRUID, 6-DAGGERS, 5-PIERIS
Race 3: 5-EVAPORATE, 1-DOM, 2-TRUNK
Race 4: 5-ALL WOKE, 2-IMMORTAL STAR, 1-MANOLOG BLING
Race 5: 14-COMMANDER HARRY, 11-STAR VEGA, 6-LAUDING
Race 6: 8-REGAL ZEUS, 15-RICK’S CAFE, 5-CAWDOR
Race 7: 2-HOLYMANZ, 7-RHAPSODY CHIC, 9-SEA WHAT I SEE
Race 8: 9-BOLD BASTILLE, 7-SANS DOUTE, 6-SHIRSHOV
Race 9: 8-EXTRATWO, 12-ALONG THE RIVER, 11-PIONEER RIVER
