MOONEE VALLEY: CARLYON STAKES - 20th August 2022

Track: HEAVY(8) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 5M

Betting Portfolio ($50): Fair bit of rain heading into the weekend with more forecast race day so this track should come up genuinely wet and probably into the HEAVY range so start looking for genuine wet trackers. Rain was Thursday, fine sunny day Friday, but more coming on race day and MV doesn’t improve as quickly as the other tracks. Rail out 5M would normally favour those on-speed, the track should cut up though later in the day, but likely to be a day for genuine wet trackers on-speed. Likely to be a far few scratchings so check back on Saturday morning for the race day update. Tricky program to do the form for pre-race day as a result and hard to know what some of these fields will end up like. In the feature Carlyon Stakes, we want a genuine wet tracker who races on-speed and the 5-BELLA NIPOTINA stands out before you even start looking at the form. Speed here should be the 3-ESTA LA ROCA leading from an inside barrier, with the other on-speed horses the 1-OXLEY ROAD and the 2-GENERATION having to work across from outside barriers, and the 13-THE MOVE and 10-MILEVA behind them, which should leave the 5-BELLA NIPOTINA getting the perfect sit on-speed into the race. Going through the field the 1-OXLEY ROAD has been really, really disappointing this time in, failed to produce in the Monash Stakes and was then a late scratching in the Bletchingly Stakes when the track came up too wet (so guess that run doesn’t count). Won two jump-outs since so may be ready to return to form, but genuine heavy track has to be a query seeing they scratched him last time. Heavy track win in the form guide was a maiden on Rapid Racing day at Flemington so may be misleading. Would actually probably win this on his best form, be interesting to see if they run him and what the market does, but prefer to risk. The 2-GENERATION is a talented on-speed sprinter who shows his best form fresh. Good MV record as well and had a few jump-outs leading into this so should be pretty forward. Drawn outside but has the speed to cross and sit outside the leader, maybe just note both soft track wins have been on a SOFT(5) only. Looks a strong chance regardless. The 3-ROCH’N’HORSE won the Group 1 Newmarket at $101 (just in case you forgot), another who might not want a really wet track and might give them a bit of a head start here over 1000M around MV. The 4-EXTREMELY LUCKY was absolutely sensational coming from last and winning easily last start in Adelaide, even though that was the racing pattern that day, but still was a seriously good win and last week’s impressive winner I AM BENE also came through that race. Unknown on genuinely heavy ground and you would have to be a bit nervous about a horse who does tend to drop out to long lasts around a possible leader’s MV trip. If they are running on and winning then he is the one to beat, but he doesn’t look a great betting proposition till we see how the track and racing pattern comes up. The 5-BELLA NIPOTINA pretty much leaps out of the form guide in this race, classy mare who has raced at the top level for several seasons and always been competitive, can jump and race on-speed, and won on a HEAVY(10) track in Sydney last preparation. Scratched from Sydney to run here in Melbourne. Her winning strike rate is probably a bit below what it should be, but she is generally always in the finish and won a jump out extremely easily and should be quite forward for this. She has class on most of these, and will get a perfect on-speed run into the race from a good barrier. Five starts at the track for four seconds, and that includes the Group 1 Manikato and some good wet track runs. The 1000M may be a little short, but think she will be strong at the end of the race and looks the one to beat, the trick may actually be keeping enough horses in the field to keep her odds up as the $7 currently on offer looks great odds. The 8-MOSSMAN GORGE is a Sydney 1000M specialist who is 1st up and form in last few preparations has only been fair and may want a firmer track. The 9-SHOWMANSHIP (SCRATCHED) ran a huge race in the Wangoom on a very, very heavy track, coming off a close to two year break, and pretty sure he has been entered once in the last month and SCR. Have to watch the market here, obviously has a stack of ability, but also very lightly raced (7 Year Old with 9 starts) so must have some issues that are hard to manage. Back-marker who is likely to give them a big start as well. The 10-MILEVA won the Monash first-up when the race was pretty much presented to her and then was a distance query over the 1200M in the Bletchingly and doesn’t look like she gets that trip. Back to the 1000M here suits and handles it wet so looks over the odds in this, well drawn and racing just behind the speed. The 11-ESTA LA ROCA is the likely leader on the rails here, excellent track and distance stats and coming off a heavy track QLD win. Looks right in this and is the one obviously advantaged if we get a leader’s track so keep an eye out and maybe jump into the odds early if that looks to be the racing pattern. The 12-BLESS HER (SCRATCHED) has been a bit frustrating to follow, she does have ability and loves it wet but she just doesn’t seem to win races. Snuck up on the inside in the Monash to just miss on the line, and she is drawn to swoop around them late and is probably the best roughie in the race. The 13-THE MOVE is a QLD visitor who we don’t know much about, will settle handy but wet track form doesn’t look very inspiring. The 5-BELLA NIPOTINA looks an absolute stand-out to us in this race, perfect on-speed sit probably wide and 3rd or so in running, handles it wet, and likely to be stronger than the others at the end of 1000M. Main concern is a few under and around her in the betting market being SCR and destroying the odds on offer. The 11-ESTA LA ROCA gets the lead here and might be hard to run down if those on-speed are winning and the classy 2-GENERATION should be sitting outside her and getting every chance if forward enough. Best roughie is the 10-MILEVA back in distance with a good on-speed sit into the race. Totally wary of the 4-EXTREMELY LUCKY who is a horse going places this spring, just not sure a tight MV 1000M sprint on a heavy track is the right race for a horse who is notoriously slow out of the barrier (go back over the form comments and see how many times he has jumped awkwardly, fairly, slowly). Happy to change our mind based on the racing pattern, but doing the form pre-race day he does look a risk at the moment. Looks a great betting race at the moment with question marks over the favourite, but suspect scratchings may knock the field around. Confident win bet on the 5-BELLA NIPOTINA and anchor in a quinella with the 2-GENERATION and value runners 11-ESTA LA ROCA, 10-MILEVA. BEST WIN: Race 8: 5-BELLA NIPOTINA $7 WIN QUINELLA: Race 8: 5-BELLA NIPOTINA#2,10,11 x $3 = 200% Absolutely no idea what odds we are going to be getting on this one come race time, but it is probably going to be closer to the $4 mark or under and would have loved the full field to go around here and to be backing her at $7. Scratched from Sydney to run here at MV, looks perfect suited on a wet track to sit just behind the speed and she has class on her day to win this. Coming off a good jumpout. Looks the one to beat here and save in a quinella with the leader the 11-ESTA LA ROCA, the on-speed 2-GENERATION and the value runner in the 10-MILEVA back in distance to 1000M. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 9-CHESTER WARRIOR $3 EW Fought on well when leading at Caulfield at first race start behind a smart one, and then won maiden easily at Swan Hill. Drawn inside here and likely leader on the rails and assuming that is going to be a plus today and seems over the odds at $10 for a horse that has done nothing wrong in his career to date and has a fair bit of untapped potential. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 5-DIRTY DEEDS $4 EW Tough gritty wet tracker who looks ready to do something today after two runs this time in. Ran out to a tear away lead last start at Flemington, but did show some kick in the straight and likely to sit second here on-speed here and ridden a bit more patiently. Except improvement today at around $8. BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 2-SACRED PALACE $3 EW QUINELLA: Race 9: 2-SACRED PALACE#1,6,10,12 x $2 = 50% Been racing very consistently on wet tracks and great run last start at Flemington behind two smart ones when he made his run closest to the inside rail which was the worse ground. Excellent distance stats (9 starts, 8 placings) and definitely shows his best on wet ground. Drawn out and a strong finisher, so should be able to drop back and swoop around them on the turn and often come the last race they go too quickly in front and set it up for a backmarker. Looks a good value each way bet at around $12 and nice value quinella in the last with the favourite 6-THE GARDEN on-speed, the 10-CHARTES coming home late, the 1-RIVER TWAIN who has been racing well and the 12-BELSIELLE who has been thereabouts in recent Melbourne runs. BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 10-CYCLONE SALLY $2 EW QUINELLA: Race 3: 3,6,10,11 boxed x $3 = 50% Tear away wet track leader from the Mick Bell stable who trained JUNGLE EDGE to be such a punter’s favourite doing just that. She destroyed them in her two Sandown wins clearing out to a long, long lead and has fought on well last two doing the same. Drop back to 1500M here probably suits and will be suited with the rain and possible leader’s bias. There are two other possible leaders here in the 8-SHOT OF IRISH and 11-KISS ME IF YOU CAN, but assuming jockey Newitt goes straight to an aggressive lead here and she seems way over the odds at $20 so maybe get in early on race day as she will shorten if the pattern is favourable. Back each way as a great roughie, and box up a quinella with the 3-LACKEEN who is a bit of a query on a wet track, the consistent 6-PROCONSENT with no weight, and the other fit leader the 11-KISS ME IF YOU CAN. BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 6-IRISH FLAME $3 EW One we back often and have had some good collects on and is often is a value runner, and just get the inkling he is ready to do something this time in with the two runs back from a long spell. Was running into the race well here around the bend last start and just looked to fade late from a lack of fitness. Didn’t do much last spring, but he did have a very unusual preparation where he was aimed at the Toorak Handicap. Excellent wet track form and on his previous form he would be right in this race and big plus is that he can race handy in a race that seems to have little speed. Excellent rough chance today at around $17 and think he is definitely worth something at those odds. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 5-RUDHYAR at around $5 Third favourite in this race and he is a hard and fit wet track stayer, but just thought he had every chance here when favourite last start and was well beaten. Chance this field could drop away and leave us exposed, but happy to risk him. TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a Moonee Valley racecourse apartment. $5 ALL UP PLACE: Race 3: 10-CYCLONE SALLY PLACE: Race 6: 5-DIRTY DEEDS PLACE: Race 8: 11-ESTA LA ROCA PLACE: Race 9: 2-SACRED PALACE All up place bet on some proven wet trackers and on-pacers and looking at around a lazy $500 for a $5 outlay. SUGGESTED QUADDIE: Races 6,7,8,9: 3,4,5,6,12 / 2,6,10,11 / 5,11 / 1,2,6,10 x $20 = 12.5% Looks to be few double figure chances in the quaddie legs, but we are also likely to be bit by scratchings (so check back on race day for changes). Go wide in an open first leg and hope for a result, can’t see that many chances in the second leg and the 6-IRISH FLAME is great value. We have to be brave around 5-BELLA NIPOTINA in the feature but add in leader 11-ESTA LA ROCA as good value back up and you probably want to go a bit wider in a fairly open last leg. May pay OK despite the small fields.

The Tips: Race 1: 9-MISS SUBTLY, 1-VA VIA, 5-RUNAWAY BELLE Race 2: 7-PROSCENIUM ARCH, 4-CASTILLIAN, 9-ZASCEND Race 3: 10-CYCLONE SALLY, 6-PROCONSENT, 3-LACKEEN Race 4: 8-DUKE OF HASTINGS, 7-MIMI’S AWARD, 1-HERMAN HESSE Race 5: 9-CHESTER WARRIOR, 5-FOUJITA SAN, 8-FAST WITNESS Race 6: 5-DIRTY DEEDS, 12-IT’S TRUE, 3-GLOBAL GIFT Race 7: 6-IRISH FLAME, 11-BORN A KING, 10-PRIX DE TURN Race 8: 5-BELLA NIPOTINA, 11-ESTA LA ROCA, 2-GENERATION Race 9: 2-SACRED PALACE, 6-THE GARDEN, 10-CHARTES