Fine and clearing weather for the weekend and a bit of wind around so this track should come up relatively firm. Last meeting here there was a strong on-speed advantage, and good chance that will continue so tend towards those on-speed and inside barriers.
In the feature Carlyon stakes we should see the 10-ESTA LA ROCA leading, with the 9-MISS ALBANIA and 1-ANCESTRY outside her, though the (1) does go quickly so may be fast enough to cross, which would be a far effort over 1000M. The 6-BALLISTIC LOVER (inside), 2-ASHLOR and 3-GREYWORM next in running and think you probably want to be out in clear running over the MV 1000M so it might be hard for those dropping back along the inside.
Going through the chances, the 1-ANCESTRY is super speedy and pretty much impossible to beat when he sprints clear of them and pours the speed on, question will be if he can do that today from barrier 9? Unbeaten here at MV and just seemed to find it a bit tougher when he went up a grade in the last few runs. Suited under this weight scale, better back at MV and scooting across in clear running without any pressure from the outside may actually be a plus, so looks the one to beat. The 2-ASHLOR has excellent track and distance stats and is probably better back on firm ground, just hasn’t shown best form in a while and think gets into a funny position here with a few that are speedier. The 3-GREYWORM gets the all-important clear running from an outside barrier, capable over further, and probably has to take a sit here which is not his normal racing pattern as likes to lead, suspect the 1000M will be too short. The 5-EXPRESS PASS is super talented and sparingly raced, he is one of the few backmarkers here off a very genuine tempo so if the track is allowing them to run on OK is definitely worth consideration. Drawn out, kept in clearing running and swooping late wouldn’t write him off and does seem over the odds. The 6-BALLISTIC LOVER is a Sydney visitor who will get the rails, but think several will cross her here and not sure first time Melbourne way of going that is going to end up with the best run, trying to peel off the inside in a 1000M scamper. Has a bit of ability and watch the market, but one we probably want to take on. The 7-QUEEN ANNABEL rarely wins, last win was here August 2019, firmer ground suits but outclassed against these. The 8-KALKARNI ROYALE is very talented on her day, but gets crossed by a few here and she definitely prefers it wet and think the track is going to come up too firm for her today. The 9-MISS ALBANIA is a flying mare on the way up going through the grades, disappointed 1st up on a day it was impossible to lead into the wind and very impressive second up win chasing down one that had kicked clear on the opposite side of the straight. Probably just takes a sit behind the leaders here out in space and is a strong winning chance. The 10-ESTA LA ROCA probably jumps to the lead here and has excellent 1000M form, forgive last start heavy track run and might be underestimated as really hasn’t done much wrong in career to date and looks a genuine winning chance.
There probably isn’t much between the top three here, the 1-ANCESTRY, 9-MISS ALBANIA and 10-ESTA LA ROCA and finding them a bit hard to split. But can just see the 1-ANCESTRY from the outside barrier working across and pinging away from them in the lead as he has done many times before, on his best form he will win this. The 10-ESTA LA ROCA looks well over the odds for a fit, in form horse that probably jumps and gets the rails and is probably better than her form suggests, and hard to know how good the untapped 9-MISS ALBANIA is going to be and would definitely be keeping her safe. Best roughie is the 5-EXPRESS PASS especially if they are running on OK. From a betting point of view probably having a win bet on the top pick and quinellas with the value second pick in a very interesting tactical race.
We bombed out last week with a wipe out in the Betting Portfolio, and not that confident about this meeting. Pretty much everyone is in lockdown and this is a pretty clunky meeting to keep us entertained with small fields and not that much to bet on. But we will try and find some double figure winners to make it worthwhile!
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 12-SMOKE BOMB $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 12-SMOKE BOMB, 9-PETRUCHIO, 10-DENERO boxed x $3 = 100%
One that showed a bit of promise leading all the way to win here as a 3YO, but didn’t really go on with it from there. Changed stables and had a spell, and looked to be back to best form with 1st up win when slogged it out on speed at Bendigo. Likely to lead here again in a race with little pressure up front, so might be hard to run down at around $7 if the leaders are winning. Back each way and save on a box quinella with the consistent on-speed 9-PETRUCHIO who looks ready to win, and the late finishing 10-DENERO who does prefer it wet and had to go for home wide and very, very early on a bog track last start when up in distance.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 9-REFLECT THE STARS $4 EW
Very consistent stayer when right and looks ready to win with the three runs in, stepping up in distance each time. Not suited by a slow speed last start, and much better back on a firm track here today over 2500M with a solid speed guaranteed. Looks a pretty good each way bet at around $11 with a perfect run from a good barrier.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 6-HIGH EMOCEAN $4 EW
Promising type who finished off well late here last start and will be suited by the rise in distance. Might just be one run ahead of some of her main rivals here, excellent career stats and can go forward here and sit handy just behind the leaders. Looks ready to do something today at around $6.
QUINELLA: Race 8: 10-ESTA LA ROCA# 1-ANCESTRY, 5-EXPRESS PASS, 9-MISS ALBANIA x $3 = 100%
Open sprint feature race but we think this one is over the odds at $13 and probably can go forward and lead here on the rails, so might fight out this finish pretty well. Might find one better, but looks a value quinella with the main chances the 1-ANCESTRY, 9-MISS ALBANIA and 5-EXPRESS PASS finishing over the top if the racing pattern allows.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 5-HE’S EXCEPTIONAL $2 EW
Taking this one on spec a little, but there is next to no speed in this race, so if you can pick the one that is going to jump and run and lead it may be hard to run down. This one has raced handy/led before and had a few good jump outs going into this so may be ready to do something 1st up at around $20.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 4-ROMANCER $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 9: 3,4,8,9,10 x $5 = 50%
Very under-rated galloper who keeps going around at long odds and won down the straight at over $100 just a few starts ago. Better on wet tracks, but dry track form is solid and he did win this race last year at a stifling $2.80. There is pretty good speed in this, but should be able to box seat behind the leaders and nothing wrong with his 1600M form so looks a nice each way bet in an open last race at around $15. We have a short priced favourite in this race, the 11-DEGRAVES who we are happy to risk at $2.30 going around a tight MV in a big field and he did race pretty erratically last start, so that means there are plenty of value chances for a quinella. So box up this one along with the 3-AL GALAYEL who loves MV and will appreciate the genuine speed here, the 8-BIOMETRIC who is fit and racing well and another who will sit behind the speed and present at the right time, the 9-SHOT OF IRISH who prefers it wet but is ready to win, and the 10-WINNING PARTNER another who will be finishing hard late.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to buy 25 million vaccine doses, pronto.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 4: 10-DENERO
PLACE: Race 5: 9-REFLECT THE STARS
PLACE: Race 7: 10-STARCASTER
PLACE: Race 8: 10-ESTA LA ROCA
These Poor Man’s Quaddie’s seem to go best at MV, so let’s hope the fast finishing Race 4: 10-DENERO can run on and get us up and running today in the first leg. The Race 5: 9-REFLECT THE STARS should be around the money, the Race 7: 10-STARCASTER probably leads and might be hard to run down and come home on the value place chance Race 8: 10-ESTA LA ROCA in the last leg. Looking at round $500 for a $5 outlay whilst you do nothing more than sit on the couch.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,4,5,6 / 6,10 / 1,9,10 / 3,4,8,9,10 x $20 = 16.66%
Might be more value in this quaddie than it initially looks, as wary of this first leg with two short priced favourites, but lots of horses 1st up so anything could happen. Be brave and just go the 6-HIGH EMOCEAN, 10-STARCASTER in the second leg, and the three selections in the third leg 1-ANCESTRY, 10-ESTA LA ROCA, 9-MISS ALBANIA, leaving us open in the last leg for some roughies like the 4-ROMANCER and 3-AL GALAYEL.
Race 1: 2-SLIDERS, 1-ZAPATEO, 9-ZOURARELLA
Race 2: 1-MALICORNE, 3-DON’TTELLTHEBOSS, 6-FOXY LADY
Race 3: 4-FRONT PAGE, 3-CORNER POCKET, 6-OCULAR
Race 4: 12-SMOKE BOMB, 9-PETRUCHIO, 10-DENERO
Race 5: 9-REFLECT THE STARS, 13-JUST AS SOON, 11-HEAVEN’S GIFT
Race 6: 1-JIGSAW, 5-HE’S EXCEPTIONAL, 4-HILLAI
Race 7: 6-HIGH EMOCEAN, 10-STARCASTER, 4-MAHAMEDEIS
Race 8: 1-ANCESTRY, 10-ESTA LA ROCA, 9-MISS ALBANIA
Race 9: 4-ROMANCER, 9-SHOT OF IRISH, 3-AL GALAYEL
